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U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Tuesday, as investors took a cautious stance ahead of the first presidential debate between the U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden, scheduled to begin at 21:00 ET (01:00 GMT on Wednesday).

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Merck (MRK) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; target $88

Pfizer (PFE) initiated with a Hold at Berenberg; target $38

Facebook (FB) target raised to $270 from $240 at MoffettNathanson 

Alphabet A (GOOGL) target raised to $1850 from $1650 at MoffettNathanson 

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Independent Research GmbH

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that S&P 500 maintains the strong tone set late Friday and above 3323/29 has seen a near-term base confirmed to suggest the worst of the price fall in the corrective phase may be behind us.

“The S&P 500 has maintained the strong tone set late Friday after holding key support and our next objective at 3204/3198 and the market has gapped higher, albeit on muted volume for a break above resistance at 3323/29 – the falling 13-day exponential average, top of the accelerated downtrend from early September and high of last week. This sees a near-term base established to suggest the worst of the corrective decline may be behind us in terms of price declines, clearing the way for the recovery to extend.”

“We look for a close above the 38.2% retracement of the September fall at 3354 to clear the way for a move to gap resistance at 3375/85 next, then the mid-September highs at 3425/29 which we expect to prove a tougher initial barrier.” 

FXStreet notes that the prospects for a return to lockdowns appear to be on the rise, pressuring stock prices in September. Nonetheless, strategists at Charles Schwab believe a return to widespread national lockdowns is highly unlikely for three reasons: healthcare systems are not overwhelmed, precision pays off when it comes to the effectiveness of restrictions and national lockdowns are known to have a huge cost.

“A return to widespread national lockdowns is highly unlikely for three reasons: healthcare systems are not overwhelmed, mid-summer second waves of virus cases in the US and China faded when narrow, localized restrictions were put in place, achieving success while limiting overall economic impact and the huge cost of the economic and human toll of national lockdowns is now known to be severe. Examining each of these leads us to believe a return to widespread national lockdowns and a related return to global recession and a bear market is highly unlikely.”

“With broad-based vaccinations unlikely this year, measured restrictions may be needed to effectively contain the virus while being efficient in their economic cost. While stocks have been wary of measures taken in September to contain the outbreaks, investors may soon get comfortable with these effective alternatives to widespread shutdowns.”

“The biggest political risk facing investors is the potential for a more dramatic reaction to COVID-19 outbreaks by politicians in the form of national lockdowns that could lead to a new bear market for stocks. In addition, such severe measures could prompt a rotation back into the COVID-winner US tech stocks and away from cyclically-oriented international stocks that have outperformed recently.”

FXStreet notes that over the past month, the S&P 500 dropped over 10% from its recent highs, led by a 14% decline in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. The recent correction may have been inevitable given rising risks for fiscal stimulus, a potential COVID-19 second wave and the upcoming election. But a resolution to these hurdles may also be possible longer-term, Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief US Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley reports.

“The correction this month is happening for the same reasons I suspected back in August. First, with Congress embroiled in election-year politics and a disagreement over when to fill the Supreme Court vacancy, the odds of the CARES2 legislation getting passed before November 3rd have dropped considerably. Morgan Stanley public policy strategist Michael Zezas thinks it's just a 33% chance at this point. Second is COVID-19 and the looming arrival of a second wave. Until we know exactly what it looks like, further lockdowns remain a real possibility. Third, real long-term interest rates appear to have bottomed as the Fed formally tells us asset purchases won't increase from here. And finally, we have the election itself.”

“The good news is that investors have started to discount these very visible concerns via lower prices and higher financial market volatility. Options markets are pricing in higher risks than normal around the U.S. election, but nothing like we actually experienced in 2016.”

“Looking beyond the near-term, I think three of the aforementioned risks are likely to be resolved positively by the end of the year, or shortly thereafter. More specifically, additional fiscal stimulus is likely as both parties want to spend more but may not be able to come to terms before the election process is completed. Meanwhile, progress on a vaccine should become clear, and we will eventually have a conclusion to the election. The one risk I think will remain with us is that long-term interest rates are likely to rise further from here, particularly if those other risks fade and the recovery continues.”