CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 27-09-2011

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27.09.2011
19:07
Dow 11,305 +260.73 +2.36%, Nasdaq 2,570.03 +53.34 +2.12%, S&P 500 1,187.91 +24.96 +2.15%
18:42
FED: Dallas Fed Pres Fisher

FED: Dallas Fed Pres Fisher (dissenter) says in an explanation of his dissent against Op Twist that he's anxious to see job growth but thinks OT costs-benefits  are not good. Reasons 1-avg person will hoard savings because of fear Fed is saying econ is worse or sets stage for QE3; 2-bank earnings come under pressure; 3-pensions have to alter assumed returns; 4-Fed holding more L-term debt compounds the complexity of future policy decisions, poss incurs losses, etc. He also says there is moral hazard of poss being too accommodative (inflation); and OT poss gives too much influence to financial interests that make more money
from trading than from lending.

17:54
The euro / dollar trading above 1.36 after the approval of property tax in Greece
17:53
Greek Parliament Passes New Property Tax 155 In Favor Vs 142 Against

Greek Parliament Passes Law Implementing New EFSF Powers

17:46
European stocks close:

FTSE 100 5,294 +204.68 +4.02%, CAC 40 3,023    +164.04 +5.74%, DAX 5,628   +282.88 +5.29%   
European stocks climbed the most in 16 months amid speculation policy makers will increase efforts to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.
Rio Tinto Group led a rally in raw-material shares, surging 7.8 percent, as metal prices rose. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA and Societe Generale (GLE) SA, France’s biggest banks, soared more than 14 percent. MAN SE (MAN) rose the most in two years as European Union regulators cleared Volkswagen AG (VOW)’s takeover of the truckmaker.

17:15
American focus: dollar and the yen declined, euro gained

 

The dollar and the yen declined as stocks rallied around the world on optimism European leaders are close to an agreement to contain the region’s debt crisis, damping demand for refuge.
The euro gained for a third day versus the dollar after Slovenia approved an expansion to the region’s rescue fund.
The dollar fell 0.7 percent against the euro to $1.3525 at 11:07 a.m. in New York. The greenback rose 0.4 percent to 76.65 yen.
 The Swiss franc fell against the dollar and the yen as data showed the country’s consumer demand dropped to the lowest in almost two years in August, adding to signs the economy is cooling.

 

 

16:42
FED: Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart

Lockhart (votes in FOMC in '12) gives speech making him a moderate who's hopeful about OT and can consider more ease. Sees 2011 as a disappointing yr - but sees slow growth and pickup, not contraction; sees inflation moderating. He's concerned about high unemployment. Says OT is meant to further ease fin'l conditions, should have modest positive impact. Concludes, "The decisions of last week's FOMC meeting should be taken neither as signaling further action on the part of the Fed nor conveying that 'we're done.' The direction of policy going forward will depend on how economic circumstances and the outlook evolve from here."

16:28
U.S. stocks advanced

U.S. stocks advanced, following the biggest gain in one month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, amid speculation that policy makers will move to avoid a worsening of the European debt crisis.
U.S. stock indexes have shown growth of about 2.5%.
Dow 11,335.77     +291.91       +2.64%, Nasdaq     2,578   +61.22 +2.43%, S&P 500   1,192.39         +29.44 +2.53%.
All sectors of S
& P500 index show growth. The leaders of the basic materials sector (+3.5%)
and industrial goods sector (+3.4%), minimal increase in utilities sector
(+1.5%).

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. added at least 2.7 percent, following gains in European lenders. Alcoa Inc. and Chevron Corp. rose more than 3 percent to pace a rally in commodity producers. Apple Inc. (AAPL) added 0.8 percent as JPMorgan analyst Mark Moskowitz said research from his colleagues in Asia about a cut in the company’s iPad orders doesn’t represent the views of the securities firm’s U.S. team.

16:09
Gold futures rose the most since March 2009

Gold futures rose the most since March 2009 as commodities and equities rallied amid optimism that European leaders will take steps to resolve the region’s debt crisis. In the previous three sessions, gold tumbled 12 percent, the most since 1983, on sales by investors to cover losses in other markets amid mounting concern that the global economy would slump.

Gold futures for December delivery gained $64.90, or 4.1 percent, to $1,659.60 an ounce by 10:23 a.m. on the Comex in New York. A close at that price would mark the biggest gain for a most-active contract since March 19, 2009. Yesterday, the metal tumbled as much as $104.80 to $1,535, the lowest since July 8.

16:08
Germany’s Minister of Economics Resler: "Countries need to do anything to stay in the euro zone"
15:38
Crude oil rose the most in six weeks

Crude oil rose the most in six weeks on speculation European leaders will bolster efforts to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis, lessening its impact on the global economy and commodities demand.
Futures climbed as much as 4.4 percent after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner predicted Europe will intensify efforts to contain its debt problems after a chiding from counterparts around the world. Greek lawmakers vote today on a property tax that’s key to persuading the European Union and International Monetary Fund to release aid and avert default.
U.S. crude stockpiles probably climbed 2.2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 23 as demand weakened in the world’s largest oil-consuming country, according to the median estimate of  analysts before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Gasoline inventories are expected to have risen 900,000 barrels to the highest level since July.

14:30
EU JUNCKER: "Won't decide on Greek aid next week "

  • Troika returning to Athens tomorrow or day after

14:01
US DATA: Sep Conference Board consumer confidence 45.5
13:38
Options:

 

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3355, $1.3450, $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3535, $1.3545, $1.3700
USD/JPY Y76.00, Y76.25, Y76.40, Y76.50, Y77.00
GBP/USD $1.5575, $1.5500
EUR/JPY Y104.00
AUD/USD $1.0000, $0.9900, $0.9850

 

13:37
GBP/USD come near to resistance at $1.5690. Offers noted from this level and extending to $1.5710.
13:36
US Stocks open: Dow 11,272.88 +229.02 +2.07%, Nasdaq 2,560.36 +43.67 +1.74%, S&P 1,184 +21.06 +1.81%
13:20
Before the bell: S&P futures +1.6%, Nasdaq futures +1.6%

U.S. stock futures advanced amid speculation that policy makers will move to avoid a worsening of the European debt crisis.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. added at least 1.8 percent, following gains in European lenders.
Attention will focus Tuesday on a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou in Berlin to discuss Greece’s efforts to cut its deficit and secure the next round of international funding.

13:01
US : July Rtrs Case-Shiller 20-city home prices -4.1% YOY.
12:44
PIMCO's, El Erian: "Op Twist can alter the T-curve but might have limited economic impact."
12:20
European session: The dollar weakened

Data:

08:00 EU(17) M3 money supply (August) adjusted Y/Y 2.8%
08:00 EU(17) M3 money supply (3 months to August) adjusted Y/Y 2.3%
10:00 UK CBI retail sales volume balance (September) -15%
The dollar and yen weakened against higher-yielding currencies as stocks rallied around the world on optimism European leaders are nearing an agreement to contain the debt crisis, damping demand for refuge assets.
The euro snapped a two-day gain versus the dollar as Italian and Spanish borrowing costs rose at debt auctions today.
Spain sold 3.22 billion euros of three- and six-month bills, compared with the Treasury’s maximum target of 3.5 billion euros, the Bank of Spain said. The yield on the three- month debt was 1.692 percent, compared with an average of 1.357 percent when similar securities were sold on Aug. 23. Italy sold 182-day bills at 3.071 percent, up from 2.14 percent at the previous auction of similar-maturity debt on Aug. 26.

EUR/USD: the pair grown in $1.3600  area.
GBP/USD: the pair grown above $1.5600.
USD/JPY: the pair restored in Y76.40 area.
At 13:00 GMT US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices  is due (cons. -4.4% vs -4.5% in June). Then at 14:00 GMT Consumer confidence will be published.

11:43
Orders:

EUR/USD 

Offers $1.3625, $1.3600/10, $1.3580/85 
Bids $1.3440, $1.3410/00, $1.3350, $1.3300

 

11:37
Tech on USD/JPY:

Resistance 3: Y77.30 (Sep 15 high) 

Resistance 2: Y77.00 (area of Sep 16, 19 and 22 high) 
Resistance 1: Y76.55 (european and american session on Sep 22 high, session high) 
Current price: Y76.42
Support 1:Y76.10/15 (area of Sep 21-23 low) 
Support 2:Y75.90 (area of historical low)
Support 3:Y75.00 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair holds in former range. Strong area of support - Y76.15-Y75.90. 

11:18
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3:Chf0.9180 (Sep 22 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9140 (Sep 26 high
Resistance 1: Chf0.9060 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9023
Support 1: Chf0.9000 (area of session low and support line from Sep 15)
Support 2: Chf0.8920 (МА (20) for Н1)
Support 3: Chf0.8880 (low of american session on Sep 21)
Comments: the pair holds in former range. In focus - support on Chf0.9000.

 


 

10:57
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5750 (area of Sep 19-21 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5690 (high of american session on Sep 21)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5600 (session high)
Current price: $1.5554
Support 1 : $1.5520 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5430 (Sep 26 low)
Support 3 : $1.5330 (Sep 22 low)
Comments: essential changes on european session hasn't occured. Areas of session high and low are the immedieate levels of resistance and support accordingly.


10:47
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3675 (resistance line from Sep 7)

Resistance 2: $ 1.3600 (area Sep 19-20 low and Sep 22 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3560 (area of Sep 23-27 high)
Current price: $1.3508
Support 1 : $1.3480 (session low) 
Support 2 : $1.3380/90 (area of Sep 22 low and session low) 
Support 3 : $1.3250 (Jan 17-18 low) 
Comments: the pair holds daily  range. In focus - area of resistance at $1.3660.

10:38
EU COMM: Troika to return to Athens 'soon'; but no date
10:22
European stocks rose

Currently FTSE 5,203 +113.21 +2.22%, CAC 2,953 +93.47 +3.27%, DAX 5,525 +179.59 +3.36%.

European stocks climbed as policy makers increased efforts to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. Asian shares and U.S. index futures advanced.
BNP Paribas (BNP) SA and Societe Generale SA led a rally in banks, soaring at least 8 percent. 
MAN SE (MAN) gained 6.7 percent as European Union regulators cleared Volkswagen AG (VOW)’s takeover of the truckmaker.

10:00
UK: CBI Sep Sales Balance -15
09:21
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS:

Sold 3-month T-bill at average yield 1.692% vs 1.357% previous

Sold 6--month T-bill at average yield 2.665% vs 2.187% previous
Sold E3.225bn vs target E2.5-E3.5bn

09:03
Asian session: the dollar dropped

China Industrial Profits, Y/Y August +28.2%

The dollar held a two-day drop against the euro as Asian stocks extended a rally in global equities, damping demand for the U.S. currency as a refuge.
Australia’s dollar advanced for a third day versus the U.S. currency and the yen on higher prices for commodities, which make up majority of the nation’s exports. The euro declined earlier as Italy and Spain prepare to sell short-term debt amid a regional fiscal crisis. Demand for the greenback was limited before a report forecast to show U.S. consumer confidence stayed near the lowest level in two years.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said faster inflation won’t reduce the housing glut. He also said “monetary policy is ultra-loose right now, and appropriately so.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and colleagues have discussed adopting specific levels of inflation and unemployment as conditions for keeping interest rates near zero.

EUR/USD: on asian session the pair gain, but later dropped.
GBP/USD: on asian session the pair gain, and show new weekly high at $1.5597.
USD/JPY: on asian session the pair hold Y76.20/50.

Focus today  Merkel to meet Papandrou in Berlin at 1800GMT; Slovenian parliament votes on EFSF before it is dissolved; Spain sells 3-/6-month T-bills for E2.5bln-E3.5bln; Austria Fin committee meets to consider EFSF Bill to go to Special Parliament session.

08:40
Forex: Monday's review

 

China Industrial Profits, Y/Y August +28.2%
 
In European session the Euro rose as market reacts to wire comments suggesting the ECB is considering restarting covered bond purchases.  
Yesterday start the U.S. session was accompanied by a fall in the major currencies in Europe: the dollar, the pound and the franc, as in the past at the weekend meetings of finance ministers and the IMF, European leaders failed to introduce additional measures to stop the regional debt crisis. The leaders of Finland and the Netherlands said that they plan toincrease their commitments to rescue the funds of the euro area.
By the time the closing European stock markets, and growth of major benchmark indexes, the dollar, pound and franc rebounded.

EUR/USD: the pair rose.
GBP/USD: the pair rose and showed new weekly high at $1.5570
USD/JPY: yestherday the pair hold Y76.25-Y76.55.

Focus today  Merkel to meet Papandrou in Berlin at 1800GMT; Slovenian parliament votes on EFSF before it is dissolved; Spain sells 3-/6-month T-bills for E2.5bln-E3.5bln; Austria Fin committee meets to consider EFSF Bill to go to Special Parliament session.

 

08:20
ECB BINI SMAGHI: ECB not going soft on inflation
  • We've proven can raise rates when inflation risks
  • Europe fundamentals much better than elsewhere
08:07
Eurozone Private Loans August +2.6%
08:07
Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August +2.8%
07:44
Stocks: Monday review

European stocks rose for a second day as foreign governments and central banks urged policy makers in Europe to intensify efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis following meetings with the International Monetary Fund.
National benchmark indexes rallied in all 18 western European markets today, except Greece and Norway.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said euro-region leaders must erect a firewall around Greece to avert a cascade of market attacks on other European states and said expanding the powers of the region’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, was necessary to avert contagion.
Allianz SE (ALV) and Axa SA (CS), Europe’s biggest insurers, jumped the most in more than a year.
Deutsche Bank AG led lenders higher amid speculation the European Central Bank may cut interest rates and as executives called for a U.S.-style Troubled Asset Relief Program in Europe.
Fresnillo Plc (FRES) tumbled 6.9 percent as silver had the biggest three-day drop since 1980.
Deutsche Bank rose 8.7 percent to 25.12 euros. NP Paribas (BNP) SA, France’s biggest bank, rallied 4 percent to 26.33 euros.

U.S. stocks advanced, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its biggest increase in a month, amid speculation that European policy makers will act to prevent the region’s debt crisis from getting worse.
ECB policy makers are likely to debate next week restarting their covered-bond purchases along with further measures to ease monetary conditions, a euro-region central bank official said.
Interest-Rate Cuts
Equities rebounded after ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said there may be “good reason” to reintroduce loans with a maturity of more than six months.
Company news:
Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) rose more than 4.5 percent as the European Central Bank was said to consider restarting covered-bond purchases along with further measures to ease monetary conditions.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) Class B shares added 8.6 percent as the company plans a stock buyback.
Boeing Co. (BA) rallied 4.2 percent as the delivery of the 787 Dreamliner ended more than three years of delays.

07:22
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y77.30 (Sep 15 high)
Resistance 2: Y77.85/90 (Sep 23 high)
Resistance 1: Y76.55 (American session of Sep 22 high)
The current price: Y76.35
Support 1:Y76.25 (session low)
Support 2:Y76.10 (area of Sep 21-23 low)
Support 3:Y75.90 (area of historical low)

Comments: the pair hold Y76.25-Y76.55. Losses below to last week low Y76.10.

07:06
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3:Chf0.9180 (Sep 22 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9080 (Sep 23 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9045 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9030
Support 1: Chf0.8995 (Sep 23 low, session high)
Support 2: Chf0.8920 (Sep 20 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8855/60 (area of Sep 19-20 low)

Comments: the pair bargains in downtrend. In focus support on Chf0.8995

06:42
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5745 (Sep 19-20 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5690 (Sep 21 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5620 (FIBO 23.6 % $1.5326-$1.6617)
The current price: $1.5569
Support 1 : $1.5530 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5490 (Sep 21 low)
Support 3 : $1.5435 (Sep 26 low)

Коментарии: the pair bargains in uptrend. In focus resistance FIBO of 23.6 % $1.5326-$ 1.6617

06:24
Tech on EUR/USD

 

Resistance 3: $ 1.3715 (FIBO 61.8 % $1.3361-$ 1.3935)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3645 (FIBO 50 % $1.3361-$ 1.3935)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3565 (session high)
The current price: $1.3225
Support 1 : $1.3480 (session high)
Support 2 : $1.3425 (Sep 23 low)
Support 3 : $1.3360 (Sep 26 low)
 
Comments: the pair holds on the week high. In focus resistance $1.3645.

 

06:05
Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey October 5.2
05:45
Daily history for Sep 26'2011:

Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 8,374 -186.51 -2.18%
Hang Seng 17,240 -429.16 -2.43%
S&P/ASX 3,866 -37.46 -0.96%
Shanghai Composite 2,404 -28.80 -1.18%
FTSE 100 5,089    +22.56 +0.45%
CAC 40 2,859 +49.23 +1.75%
DAX 5,346 +149.00 +2.87%
Dow 11,043.86 +272.38 +2.53%
Nasdaq 2,517 +33.46 +1.35%
S&P 500 1,162.95 +26.52 +2.33%
10 Year Yield 1.90% +0.10 --
Oil $81.18 +0.94 +1.17%
Gold $1,623.60 +28.80 +1.81%

05:25
Schedule for today, Tuesday , Sep 27'2011:

02:00 China , / Industrial Profits, Y/Y August +28.3%
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y August -0.4% -0.5%
06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey October 5.2 5.1
06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator August 1.29
06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index August -0.6% +0.2%
08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y August +2.0% +2.0%
08:00 Eurozone Private Loans August +2.4% +2.5%
09:30 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast IV quarter
10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance September -14 -14
13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y July -4.5% -4.4%
14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence September 44.5 46.4
14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index September -10 -8

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