CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 29-04-2020

FXStreet reports that economists at Rabobank maintain the view that the Aussie is vulnerable to further falls in the coming months as the extent of the unfolding demand-side shock unveils itself.

“The AUD retains a strong link with risk appetite.  While this has buoyed it in recent weeks, we expect support to fall away as Q2 economic data makes itself heard.”

“Even though the release of Australian Q1 CPI data produced a stronger than expected 2.2% y/y increase, Q2 data are still likely to shock. According to RBA Governor Lowe, Australia’s economy is likely to suffer its biggest contraction since the 1930s by diving around 10% over the first half of 2020.” 

“As Q2 economic data begins to unfold, we see risk of AUD/USD turning lower towards AUD/USD 0.60 on a 3-month view.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories jumped by 8.991 million barrels in the week ended April 24. Economists had forecast a surge of 10.619 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 3.669 million barrels, while analysts had expected a gain of 2.527 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 5.092 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 3.600 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. decreased by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.100 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day last week, up by 365,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

FXStreet reports that according to analysts at Nordea, the U.S. Q1 GDP came in at -4.8 % q/q annualized, the worst since Q4 2008. It will, however, be much worse in Q2.

“Q1 GDP came in at -4.8 % q/q annualized, the worst since Q4 2008 with personal consumption unsurprisingly collapsed by 7.7% q/q ann. in line with recent data from retail sales and auto sales.” 

“We project Q2 GDP at -31% q/q ann., thereby ending the longest expansion in US history.” 

“Overall, we expect a U-shaped recovery with 2020 GDP growth at 5%.”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index (PHSI) tumbled 20.8 percent m-o-m to 88.2 in March, after a revised 2.3 percent m-o-m climb in February (originally a 2.4 percent m-o-m gain).

Economists had expected pending home sales to decrease 10 percent m-o-m in March.

On y-o-y basis, the index declined 16.3 percent after a 9.4 percent jump in February. That was the biggest annual drop since April 2011.

According to the report, all regional indices recorded m-o-m decreases in March. The Northeast PHSI dropped 14.5 percent m-o-m to 82.3 in March, 11.0 percent lower than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index slumped 22.0 percent m-o-m to 85.6 last month, down 12.4 percent from March 2019. Pending home sales in the South sank 19.5 percent m-o-m to an index of 103.7 in March, a 17.8 percent fall from March 2019. The index in the West plummeted 26.8 percent m-o-m in March 2020 to 71.4, down 21.5 percent from a year ago.

"The housing market is temporarily grappling with the coronavirus-induced shutdown, which pulled down new listings and new contracts," noted Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "As consumers become more accustomed to social distancing protocols, and with the economy slowly and safely reopening, listings and buying activity will resume, especially given the record low mortgage rates."

FXStreet notes that the EUR is likely to react more to the ECB's influence on sentiment than traditional monetary policy signals. Here, more from the Governing Council is likely to be seen as better for the currency, for now, per TD Securities.

“Hawkish (10%): ECB has done enough. EUR/USD may knee-jerk higher but should begin to weaken towards 1.0765 as sentiment sours because the ECB is unable or unwilling to do more.”

“Base Case (50%): Rates, QE, forward guidance all unchanged. ECB to buy ‘fallen angels’ & extend LTROs as downside risks to growth/inflation are severe. EUR/USD shakes off downbeat outlook & grinds higher on continued support.” 

“Dovish (25%): Additional liquidity support. EUR/USD may dip at first but rebounds on better sentiment. The ECB remains the only game in town.”

“More Dovish (15%): ECB increases size of PEPP. ECB will indeed do whatever it takes in a timely manner, given swift deterioration in growth and inflation outlooks. EUR/USD extends gains toward key resistance near 1.10.”

FXStreet reports that strategists at TD Securities note that in energy markets, the left tail is shrinking.

“OPEC+ output curtailment is set to officially begin in just a few days, while market forces, such as persistently low prices and storage constraints, are at work to ultimately drive non-OPEC supply significantly lower.” 

“While we anticipate a long road to recovery for crude prices, the left tail may have narrowed sufficiently for market participants to begin eyeing opportunities.”

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Wednesday, as Gilead Sciences' (GILD) statement that its experimental antiviral drug remdesivir met the main goal of a trial testing it in COVID-19 patients, outweighed gloomy Q1 GDP data and mixed quarterly earnings.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

NIKE (NKE) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; target $108

DuPont (DD) resumed with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; target $54

Alphabet (GOOG) target raised to $1575 from $1425 at Pivotal Research Group

UPS (UPS) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; target lowered to $85

Walmart (WMT) downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Gordon Haskett; target raised to $140

Germany's Federal Statistical Office reported on Wednesday the country's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.3 m-o-m in April after gaining 0.1 percent m-o-m in the previous month.

On the y-o-y basis, Germany's inflation rate is seen to rise 0.8 percent this month, following a 1.4 percent advance in March. That is the lowest inflation rate since November 2016.

Economists had predicted inflation would be flat m-o-m, but would increase 0.6 percent y-o-y in April.

According to the report, food price growth accelerated to 4.8 percent y-o-y in April from 3.7 percent y-o-y in March, while energy prices fell 5.8 percent y-o-y after a 0.9 percent y-o-y drop in the previous month. Services costs rose 1.3 percent y-o-y in April, decelerating from 1.4 percent y-o-y in March.

Meanwhile, the harmonized index of consumer prices for Germany (HICP), which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to advance 0.4 percent m-o-m and 0.8 percent y-o-y.

The Commerce Department released on Wednesday its "advance" estimate for the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020, which revealed the U.S. economy shrank more than forecast in the reviewed period.

According to the estimate, the U.S. real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent q-o-q last quarter, following a 2.1 percent q-o-q growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued "stay-at-home" orders in March. That marked the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Economists had expected GDP to fall by 4.0 percent.

According to the report, the decline in real GDP in the first quarter reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Meanwhile, imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, dropped.

EUR traded mixed against other major currencies in the European session on Wednesday, with declines versus JPY, CAD and AUD, and gains versus USD, GBP and CHF.

Market participants are awaiting the announcements of the outcomes of the policy meetings of the Federal Reserve (due later today) and European Central Bank (due on Thursday), at which the central bankers are expected to expand stimulus to help their coronavirus-hit economies.

Several European countries, including Italy, France, Spain, Portugal and Greece, have unveiled their lockdown easing plans in the past few days, boosting investors' optimism about economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

Investors received disappointing data from the European Commission, which showed that economic confidence in the Eurozone fell sharply in April and reached the lowest level since March 2009, as the coronavirus crisis escalated. The economic confidence index plunged to 67.0 this month from 94.2 in March. That marked the biggest monthly decline since 1985.

This data added to pressure on the single currency, which was hit hard earlier today by the report that rating agency Fitch downgraded Italy's rating to BBB- from BBB with a Stable outlook, due to a significant impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the fiscal position of the economy.

• We need to double down and get a deal to avoid more uncertainty
• Says that deal would give shot in arm to businesses on both sides of the channel

Boeing (BA) reported Q1 FY 2020 loss of $1.70 per share (versus earnings of $3.16 per share in Q1 FY 2019), worse than analysts' consensus estimate of a loss of $1.39 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $16.908 bln (-26.2% y/y), roughly in line with analysts' consensus estimate of $16.904 bln.

BA rose to $137.96 (+5.07%) in pre-market trading.

EUR/JPY: Below 115.53 should add momentum to the downtrend – Credit Suisse

FXStreet reports that in the opinion of analysts at Credit Suisse, a close below 115.53 should finally confirm the looked-for large bear triangle on the EUR/JPY pair.

“Our bias stays lower and we continue to look for a close below 115.53 to confirm the completion of the looked-for large bear ‘triangle’ pattern to mark a significant turn lower.” 

“We would look for a more impulsive trend lower to emerge with support then seen next at 114.85, the April 2017 low. Beneath here should add momentum to the fall, with the next meaningful support then seen at 112.08.”

“Resistance moves to 115.84 initially then 116.27, with the recent reaction high and 13-day average at 116.51/61 now ideally capping further strength.”

FXStreet reports that strategists at UOB Group’s Quarterly Global Outlook expect the RBNZ to keep the current monetary policy conditions unaltered at the May meeting.

“The RBNZ has given forward guidance, committing to keep the OCR at 0.25% for at least 12 months”.

“Our view is that it will remain there even longer. Depending on how the current financial market situation develops, more QE may be required down the road.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. fell 3.3 percent in the week ended April 24, following a 0.3 percent drop in the previous week.

According to the report, refinance applications decreased 7.3 percent, while applications to purchase a home surged 11.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate fell to 3.43 percent from 3.45 percent. That was the lowest level in the MBA's survey, which began in 1990.

"The 10 largest states [by application volume] had increases in purchase activity, which is potentially a sign of the start of an upturn in the pandemic-delayed spring homebuying season, as coronavirus lockdown restrictions slowly ease in various markets," noted Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. "California and Washington continued to show increases in purchase activity, with New York seeing a significant gain after declines in five of the last six weeks."

• Cannot promise that the warning will not be needed after mid-June
• European coordination on summer travel would be desirable

General Electric (GE) reported Q1 FY 2020 loss of $0.05 per share (versus earnings of $0.14 per share in Q1 FY 2019), missing analysts' consensus estimate of earnings of $0.08 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $20.524 bln (-24.8% y/y), roughly in line with analysts' consensus estimate of $20.345 bln.

The company also said it expected Q2 financial results to decline sequentially due to pressure from COVID-19 and withdrew its FY 2020 guidance.

GE fell to $6.69 (-1.62%) in pre-market trading.

Starbucks (SBUX) reported Q2 FY 2020 earnings of $0.32 per share (versus $0.60 per share in Q2 FY 2019), in line with analysts' consensus estimate.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $5.996 bln (-4.9% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $5.853 bln.

SBUX fell to $77.30 (-1.77%) in pre-market trading.

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse note that below 106.92, the USD/JPY pair marks a bearish continuation pattern to turn the risk lower within the long-term range.

“USD/JPY has finally seen a more decisive move lower for a clear break of key support from the twin lows of April at 106 to mark a bearish continuation pattern and more important turn lower within the longer-term sideways range stretching back to June 2016.” 

“Support is seen next at the 61.8% retracement of the March rally and price support at 105.20/14. Whilst we look for this to hold at first, a break is expected in due course with support then seen next at 104.49, then what we look to be better support, starting at the 78.6% retracement at 103.52/43 and stretching down to 103.09.” 

“Near-term resistance moves to 106.78, with 106.90/96 ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. Only above 107.35/45 though would warn of a false break lower.”

Ford Motor (F) reported Q1 FY 2020 loss of $0.23 per share (versus earnings of $0.44 per share in Q1 FY 2019), worse than analysts' consensus estimate of -$0.06 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $34.320 bln (-14.9% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $31.726 bln.

F fell to $5.22 (-2.97%) in pre-market trading.

USD/CNH could move below the 7.0650 level – UOB

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the bearish view on USD/CNH and believe it could recede to the 7.0650 level and below.

24-hour view: “Instead of trading sideways, USD dipped to 7.0759 before recovering. The underlying tone has weakened and from here, a break of the 7.0759 low could lead to further USD weakness to 7.0650. Resistance is at 7.0880 followed by 7.0920.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “The rebound in USD from a low of 7.0370 (Apr 10) touched 7.1087 on 21 Apr and since then, it has not been able to make much headway on the upside. The price action is not out of line from our expectation from 16 Apr (spot at 7.0770) wherein USD ‘has likely moved into a consolidation phase’ and ‘is likely to trade between 7.0450 and 7.1250 for a period’. That said, the underlying tone has weakened and the downside risk is beginning to increase. From here, unless USD can move above 7.1030 within these few days, a break of 7.0650 would improve the prospect of USD moving below 7.0370.”

Alphabet (GOOG) reported Q1 FY 2020 earnings of $9.87 per share (versus $9.50 per share in Q1 FY 2019), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $10.99 per share.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $41.159 bln (+13.3% y/y), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $40.291 bln.

GOOG rose to $1,332.09 (+7.98%) in pre-market trading.

Advanced Micro (AMD) reported Q1 FY 2020 earnings of $0.18 per share (versus $0.06 per share in Q1 FY 2019), in line with analysts' consensus estimate.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $1.786 bln (+40.4% y/y), roughly in line with analysts' consensus estimate of $1.792 bln.

The company also issued in-line revenue guidance for both Q2 and the full year, projecting a respective ~$1.75-1.95 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $1.9 bln) and ~$8.078-8.75 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of. $8.39 bln).

AMD fell to $54.15 (-2.45%) in pre-market trading.

FXStreet reports that USD/JPY carries the potential to slip back to the 106.00 region in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.

24-hour view: "The sudden sharp decline in USD that sent it plummeting to a 6-week low of 106.54 came as a surprise. Robust downward momentum suggests further USD weakness is likely. From here, barring a move back above 107.05 (minor resistance is at 106.90), USD is expected to weaken further to 106.25 (next support is at 106.00)."

Next 1-3 weeks: "While we noted yesterday (28 Apr, spot at 107.30) that 'downward momentum is beginning to pick-up', we held the view that 'it is too early to expect a sustained decline in USD'. We highlighted that 'only a NY closing below 106.70 would indicate that USD is ready to move to 106.00'. USD subsequently dropped to 106.54 before ending the day at 106.86. While the NY closing is not as weak as preferred, the price action suggests USD is likely to weaken to 106.00. Only a breach of the 'strong resistance'at 107.35 would indicate that our view is wrong."

FXStreet reports that economists at TD Securities analyze three scenarios which the Fed can take at its meeting and the market reaction on the USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs.

"Hawkish (15%): The Fed notes dramatic weakening in the economy but suggests that it has eased enough for second-half recovery and announces new scaling down of QE as market functioning is largely back to normal. USD/JPY 108.10 EUR/USD 1.0730."

"Base case (60%): The Fed notes dramatic weakening and reiterates it will 'use its full range of tools.' The chair expresses optimism that actions to date will help the recovery process but emphasizes that more easing will occur as needed. USD/JPY 106.50 EUR/USD 1.0850."

"Dovish (25%): The Fed notes dramatic weakening and reiterates it will 'use its full range of tools' and that Fed assets are likely to rise significantly. The chair highlights the likely need to remain at the ELB for a very long time and for QE to provide more stimulus. USD/JPY 106.20 EUR/USD 1.0950/80."

According to the report from European Commission, in April 2020, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) crashed in both the euro area (−27.2 points down to 67.0) and the EU (−28.8 down to 65.8 points).1 This was the strongest monthly decline in the ESI on record (since 1985), surpassing by far the previous negative record from March. The indicators are now far below their longterm averages of 100 and very close to the lowest levels registered during the Great Recession in March 2009. The Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) plummeted to its lowest level on record (by 30.1 points to 63.7 in the euro area and 31.2 points to 63.3 in the EU).

In the euro area, the collapse in the ESI resulted from an exceptionally strong fall in confidence among consumers and in all the business sectors. Compared to the other sectors, the crash was particularly marked in services and retail trade; the fall in construction confidence, although the strongest on record, was less marked than in the other sectors.

While Industry confidence fell dramatically (−19.2), it remained above the record low of March 2009. The steepest monthly fall on record resulted first and foremost from managers' crashing production expectations. The stark decline in consumer confidence (−11.1) was fuelled by households' tumbling expectations concerning the general economic situation, but also their own financial situation. The crash in retail trade confidence (−19.7) was due to the exceptionally strong deterioration in retailers' business expectations. The slump in construction confidence (−15.1) resulted from managers' marked corrections to their employment expectations and assessments of the level of order books. Finally, financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) fell like a stone (−49.3). Unprecedented deteriorations were registered in all three components, i.e. managers' demand expectations and the assessment of the past business situation and past demand.

FXStreet reports that with the fiscal picture deteriorating fast due to the ongoing recession, the possibility of Canada losing its AAA credit rating cannot be ruled out, according to Krishen Rangasamy from the National Bank of Canada.

"The real cost of any credit downgrade, namely an expected ramp up in borrowing costs, is likely to be limited thanks in part to the Bank of Canada's asset purchase program. The Canadian dollar could also be under pressure, with some even calling for a return to all-time lows against USD after a hypothetical credit downgrade."

"USD/CAD exchange rate is by definition a relative price and hence its trajectory depends on developments in both the US and Canada."

"If there's a macro shock specific to Canada which leaves the US unscathed, sure the Canadian dollar could sink to all-time lows against the greenback. But everything else equal, the fiscal situation on its own (and a hypothetical credit downgrade) is unlikely to hammer the loonie the way some are expecting."

According to the report from European Central Bank, the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 7.5% in March 2020 from 5.5% in February, averaging 6.0% in the three months up to March. Economists had expected a 5.5% increase.

Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 10.3% in March from 8.1% in February

Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households decreased to 3.4% in March from 3.7% in February

Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations increased to 5.4% in March from 3.0% in February

CNBC reports that Italy's credit rating has been downgraded to one notch above junk level by Fitch ratings agency as the coronavirus hurts Italy's already fragile economy further.

Fitch downgraded Italy's credit rating from 'BBB' to 'BBB-', just one level above its junk rating, reflecting increasing doubts around Italy's credit-worthiness as it tries to recover from the economic and societal damage inflicted by the coronavirus.

The ratings agency said the downgrade reflects "the significant impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on Italy's economy and the sovereign's fiscal position."

Fitch forecast that Italy's economy will contract by 8% in 2020 and said the risks to this baseline forecast are tilted to the downside, as it assumes that the coronavirus can be contained in the second half of the year, leading to a relatively strong economic recovery in 2021.

But "in the event of a second wave of infections and the widespread resumption of lockdown measures, economic outturns would be weaker for 2020 and 2021," Fitch warned.

The ratings agency believes that Italy's debt to GDP ratio will increase by around 20 percentage points this year to 156% of GDP by at the end of 2020. Italy is one of the most indebted nations in the world after Japan and Greece.

According to Fitch's baseline debt dynamics scenario, the debt-to-GDP ratio "will only stabilize at this very high level over the medium term, underlining debt sustainability risks."

The US dollar fell in price while waiting for the results of the Federal reserve meeting.

Most experts expect that the Federal reserve will keep the base interest rate at 0-0. 25% per annum at the end of the meeting on Wednesday. In March, the Fed twice urgently lowered the rate - the first time by 0.5%, to 1-1. 25% per annum, the second time - by 1%, to 0-0. 25% per annum.

Following this, the Fed launched a $700 billion asset repurchase program, and a week later announced that it would not limit its volume at all. In addition, the Fed has introduced a number of new credit programs to ensure uninterrupted provision of business with cash.

Analysts note that traders expect the FOCM to significantly change the text of the statement at the end of the meeting to give a clear signal that the policy parameters it has urgently introduced will remain as long as necessary.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell by 0.18%.

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group remain neutral on EUR/USD and see the pair navigating within the 1.0725/1.0940 band for the time being.

24-hour view: "The sudden but short-lived surge in EUR and the subsequent rapid pull-back from 1.0888 came as a surprise. The volatile price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. For today, EUR could continue to trade in a choppy manner between 1.0790 and 1.0870."

Next 1-3 weeks: "We have held the same view since 16 Apr (spot at 1.0890) wherein 'the outlook is mixed' and EUR could 'continue to trade in an undecided manner within a broad 1.0750/1.1000 range for a period'. When EUR moved towards the bottom of our expected range at 1.0750, we indicated last Friday (24 Apr, spot at 1.0780) that only 'a NY closing below 1.0720 would suggest EUR could weaken further to 1.0635'. EUR subsequently dipped to 1.0725 before staging a robust rebound. Downward pressure has eased and the outlook for EUR remains mixed for now. From here, EUR could continue to trade in an undecided manner and a 1.0725/1.0940 range is likely wide enough to contain the movement in EUR for a while more."

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices decreased by 5.5% in March 2020 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest price decrease compared to the previous year since May 2016 (-5.7%). In February 2020 and in January 2020 the annual rates of change were -2.0% and -0.9%, respectively. From February 2020 to March 2020 the index fell by 3.5%.

The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, decreased in March 2020 by 2.2% compared with March 2019 and in comparison with February 2020 it fell by 0.9%.

The index of export prices decreased by 0.5% in March 2020 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. This has been the highest price decrease compared to the previous year since September 2016 (-0.7%). In February 2020 and in January 2020 the annual rates of change were +0.3% and +0.5%, respectively. From February 2020 to March 2020 the index fell by 0.7%.

eFXdata reports that Barclays Research discusses its expectations for FOMC policy meeting.

"We expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds target range at the zero lower bound. We do not believe it is ready to shift to stronger forward guidance, which could include YCC, at the April meeting. We believe it would prefer to remain in risk management mode and focus on its LSAPs and credit and liquidity facilities to improve market functioning and ensure the flow of credit to households, business, and municipalities.

A shift to stronger forward guidance, in our view, is not likely to come about until the June FOMC meeting or later, when the Fed has a better idea of how economic activity is responding to the phased re-opening of the economy," Barclays notes.

"Our baseline economic outlook includes an elevated unemployment rate and belowtarget inflation throughout the forecast horizon, which could justify a strengthening of forward guidance sometime in Q3, should the Fed hold a similar view," Barclays adds.

FXStreet reports that amid deeper global economic contraction-induced lower demand for oil products, Moody's Investors Service downgrades near-term oil price forecasts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent.

"Exceptionally weak short-term prices will persist until production drops enough to ease the strain on storage facilities already operating at or close to full capacity.

Significant supply adjustments in due course should help to balance the market later in 2020, but the pace of the market's rebalancing and rising oil prices will depend on demand recovery.

Moody's price assumption for WTI, the North American benchmark crude is now US$30 per barrel (bbl) for 2020 and US$40 in 2021.

For the main international crude benchmark Brent, Moody´s sees prices averaging US$35 per bbl this year and US$45 in 2021, while oil production will decline in 2020-21 because of both the agreed OPEC+ deal and production shut-ins in the US and Canada.

Moody's expects production cuts to gather speed in the second half of 2020."

• China reported 22 new cases as of April 28, according to its National Health Commission, bringing the country's total to 82,858 cases.

• Mexico reported an increase of 1,223 new cases, taking its tally to 16,752.

• The coronavirus has now infected more than 1 million people in the United States as the nation grapples with roughly a third of all global cases - making it the worst outbreak in the world, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

• Global cases: At least 3,113,447.

• Global deaths: At least 216,930.

• Most cases reported: United States (1,011,877), Spain (232,128), Italy (201,505), France (169,053), and United Kingdom (162,350).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.0935 (851)

$1.0906 (574)

$1.0885 (625)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.0850

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.0791 (1373)

$1.0762 (1841)

$1.0726 (1364)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 67843 contracts (according to data from April, 28) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (2878);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2587 (349)

$1.2555 (698)

$1.2529 (517)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2477

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2433 (1073)

$1.2411 (261)

$1.2381 (344)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 8 is 16472 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (1714);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 8 is 17963 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (1073);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 28

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.