Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 19-08-2013

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19.08.2013
18:19
American focus: the euro and the pound stabilized

Against the background of the empty economic calendar in the U.S. session, the euro and the pound stabilized.

Earlier, the euro managed to show modest gains against the dollar, thus responding to the comments Bundesbank. The German central bank said it expected normalization of economic growth in the second half of this year. There were also marked reduction in expectations of inflationary pressures in the coming months and added that "the ECB's low interest rates continue to support the recovery in the years 2013-2014."

The limiting factor for the single currency was data from the Bank of Spain, which recorded a growth in the share of problem loans of Spanish banks to a new historical high of 11.6% in June from May's value at the level of 11.2%.

Pound was able to update the August highs against the U.S. dollar, but to develop a pair of upward movement failed and retreated somewhat. Positive impact on the dynamics of the pound rise projections for the growth of the British economy by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). CBI, which represents the interests of about 240,000 businesses expect growth in the current year the British economy will be 1.2% versus 1.0% previously expected. Forecast for 2014 also increased: from 2.0% to 2.3%.

11:40
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3440/50, $1.3415/20, $1.3390/400, $1.3380

Bids $1.3310/00, $1.3290/85, $1.3280


GBP/USD

Offers $1.5750/55, $1.5720/25, $1.5700, $1.5680

Bids $1.5610/00, $1.5585/80, $1.5555/50, $1.5505/00


AUD/USD

Offers $0.9315/20, $0.9300, $0.9265/70, $0.9250, $0.9230/40, $0.9195/00

Bids $0.9140/30, $0.9110/00, $0.9090, $0.9050


USD/JPY

Offers Y98.50, Y98.10/30

Bids Y97.55/50, Y97.20/00, Y96.80, Y96.60/50


EUR/JPY

Offers Y131.90/00, Y131.45/50, Y131.20, Y131.10

Bids Y130.40/35, Y130.00, Y129.50


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8620/30, stg0.8580/85, stg0.8565/70

Bids stg0.8505/00, stg0.8485/80, stg0.8565/60, stg0.8420


10:01
Bank of Spain data showed That Spanish banks' bad loans rose to a fresh high of 11.6% in June vs 11.2% in May
09:27
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3285, $1.3310, $1.3400, $1.3405

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.50, Y97.75, Y98.00(large), Y98.25, Y99.25, Y99.75

GBP/USD $1.5455, $1.5460, $1.5485, $1.5600, $1.5615, $1.5620, $1.5650, $1.5655, $1.5700

EUR/GBP stg0.8550

USD/CHF Chf0.9200, Chf0.9220, Chf0.9250, Chf0.9260

AUD/USD $0.9100

AUD/NZD NZ$1.1455

USD/CAD C$1.0350, C$1.0400

EUR/NOK Nok7.8000, Nok7.8020


06:02
Asian session: The euro was 0.4 percent from a one-week high

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) July +3.6% Revised From +4.0% -4.0% -3.5%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) July +6.9% Revised From +7.1% +3.0%


The euro was 0.4 percent from a one-week high against its U.S. peer before German data this week that analysts predict may show the currency bloc’s largest economy is gaining momentum. Germany’s producer prices probably rose in July, while surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services industries showed activity picked up this month in the nation and in the euro region, according to economists polled by Bloomberg News. A gauge of German manufacturing gained to 51.1 this month from 50.7 in July and the services index rose to 51.7 from 51.3, an Aug. 22 report from London-based Markit Economics may show according to a separate Bloomberg poll of economists. An index of activity for both industries in the euro zone rose to 50.9 from 50.5, another Bloomberg survey predicts. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The yen fell earlier on data showing Japan’s trade deficit widened in July. Japan’s imports outpaced exports by 1.02 trillion yen ($10.5 billion) in July, compared with the median estimate for a 773.5 billion yen gap, data showed today. It was the worst since January, when the deficit was a record 1.63 trillion yen.

Australia’s dollar rose amid speculation minutes tomorrow of the Reserve Bank’s last meeting will signal no hurry to reduce interest rates further. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark rate to a record 2.5 percent on Aug. 6. In the statement announcing the move, policy makers changed the wording when discussing whether the inflation outlook provided scope for further easing, damping expectations for additional cuts.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3320-40

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range of $ 1.5615-40

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y97.35-85


As the summer holiday season continues, Monday sees a very light data calendar that is light on volume on both sides of the Atlantic. Flash euro zone PMIs on Thursday will provide the main data focus for the markets in an otherwise ho-hum August week. The release will provide the first indication on whether the return to growth seen in Q2 GDP data will be sustained through Q3. Another relatively strong number will likely quash utterly any lingering speculation that the European Central Bank will move to cut rates again in coming months - something which had already been very much on the cards following Mario Draghi's guidance commitment in July. The only release set for Monday is the German Bundesbank's August monthly report at 1000GMT.

05:23
Schedule for today, Monday, Aug 19’2013:

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) July +3.6% Revised From +4.0% -4.0% -3.5%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) July +6.9% Revised From +7.1% +3.0%

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