Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 21-08-2013

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21.08.2013
17:48
American focus: dollar moderately rising in anticipation of the Fed's protocols

During the U.S. session, the greenback shows moderate gains against major currencies. Market participants expect the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve, hoping to get more information about the prospects for monetary policy the Fed.

Support for the U.S. dollar has also had a strong statistics on the housing market in the U.S.. The report showed that sales in the secondary market in July rose to the highest level in nearly four years. This may reflect a jump in activity of buyers who want to complete the transaction before the mortgage rates will rise even higher. It reported sales of existing homes in July rose by 6.5% compared with the previous month to 5.39 million homes a year. July was the best month for sales since November 2009, when the tax credit for home buyers spurred activity in the market. Economists had forecast that sales will reach 5.15 million homes a year.

Quite volatile trading pound. Influence on its dynamics have provided the publication of macroeconomic reports. Sterling was able to update the session high against the dollar due to the released data on the balance of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The survey recorded 400 manufacturers that balance index of industrial orders in August reached the zero mark against -12 points in July and expectations of improvement to -8 points. The August figure was the highest value in the last 2 years and was another signal that the British economy is gaining momentum.

14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, August -4.0
14:00
U.S.: Existing Home Sales , July 5.39 (forecast 5.15)
13:49
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.50, Y97.60, Y98.00

EUr/JPY Y131.00

GBP/USD $1.5575, $1.5650

USD/CHF Chf0.9200, Chf0.9300, Chf0.9400

USD/SEK Sek6.5000

AUD/USD $0.9050, $0.9100, $0.9200

USD/CAD C$1.0315, C$1.0370, C$1.0380, C$1.0400

13:40
Moody's has lifted its collective outlook on U.S. states to stable from negative, citing increasing revenues following improvement in the labor and housing sectors, consumer confidence and the stock market.
11:53
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3520, $1.3500, $1.3475/85, $1.3450, $1.3420, $1.3400

Bids $1.3385/80, $1.3375/70, $1.3360/50


GBP/USD

Offers $1.5750/55, $1.5720/25, $1.5700, $1.5695

Bids $1.5655/50, $1.5630/25, $1.5610/00, $1.5580/70, $1.5555/50, $1.5505/00


USD/JPY

Offers Y98.50, Y98.00, Y97.85/90, Y97.75/80

Bids Y97.20/10, Y96.95/90, Y96.80, Y96.60/50, Y96.00


AUD/USD

Offers $0.9180, $0.9150, $0.9120, $0.9090/00, $0.9070/75, $0.9035/40

Bids $0.9005/00, $0.8980, $0.8950, $0.8920, $0.8900, $0.8880/75


EUR/JPY

Offers Y131.95/00, Y131.80, Y131.45/50, Y131.10/20

Bids Y130.00, Y129.80/75, Y129.50


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8620/30, stg0.8600/10, stg0.8580/85

Bids stg0.8510/00, stg0.8485/80, stg0.8565/60

10:00
United Kingdom: CBI industrial order books balance, August 0 (forecast -8)
09:24
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y97.50, Y97.60, Y98.00

EUr/JPY Y131.00

GBP/USD $1.5575, $1.5650

USD/CHF Chf0.9200, Chf0.9300, Chf0.9400

USD/SEK Sek6.5000

AUD/USD $0.9050, $0.9100, $0.9200

USD/CAD C$1.0315, C$1.0370, C$1.0380, C$1.0400

08:31
United Kingdom: PSNB, bln, July -1.6% (forecast -4.8)
06:01
Asian session: The dollar rose versus its Asia-Pacific counterparts

00:30 Australia Leading Index June +0.2% 0.0%

02:00 China Leading Index July +1.0% +1.4%

03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending July +5.4% +4.7%


The dollar rose versus its Asia-Pacific counterparts as investors await the release today of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting for signals on when it may curtail monetary stimulus. The Fed will publish today its July meeting minutes that may offer clues on whether policy makers will start reducing their $85 billion of monthly bond purchases known as quantitative easing or QE. The Federal Open Market Committee next gathers on Sept. 17-18 and will probably to reduce the program at that meeting, according to 65 percent of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News Aug. 9-13. The central bank has said it will keep benchmark rates near zero at least as long as unemployment is above 6.5 percent and inflation is no more than 2.5 percent.

The greenback extended gains against the Australian and New Zealand dollars into a third day.

The yen erased earlier losses as Asian stocks fell and Japanese regulators raised the severity of a radioactive water leak in Fukushima.

The euro was near a six-month high before manufacturing and services data tomorrow that may add to evidence of a recovery in the region.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3415-35

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5645-70

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y97.60


Across the Atlantic, the US data gets underway from 1100GMT, when the MBA Mortgage Index for the August 16 week will be released. At 1400GMT, the July Existing Home Sales data will be released. The pace of existing home sales is expected to rebound to a 5.20 million annual rate in July after slowing in June. Sales are still well above their year ago levels and should continue to move higher. In contrast, home supply remains well below its year ago level despite an upward trend over the last five months. The relatively low supply appears to be holding back sales, but lifting sales prices. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks data for the August 16 week will be published at 1430GMT. Perhaps the session's main release will be the FOMC minutes for the July 30/31 meeting at 1800GMT. Once again, the markets will be on "tapering" alert and any further positioning from Fed voters.


05:20
Currencies. Daily history for Aug 20'2013:

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3417 +0,60%

GBP/USD $1,5662 +0,10%

USD/CHF Chf0,9172 -0,75%

USD/JPY Y97,31 -0,33%

EUR/JPY Y130,56 +0,27%

GBP/JPY Y152,39 -0,22%

AUD/USD $0,9067 -0,55%

NZD/USD $0,7960 -1,34%

USD/CAD C$1,0394 +0,48%

05:00
Schedule for today, Wednesday, Aug 21’2013:

00:30 Australia Leading Index June +0.2% 0.0%

02:00 China Leading Index July +1.0% +1.4%

03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending July +5.4% +4.7%

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln July 10.2 -4.8

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance August -12 -8

14:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales July 5.08 5.15

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories August -2.8

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes


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