Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 20-08-2013

Data:

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) Juli 0.0% +0.2% -0.1%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) Juli +0.6% +0.7% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m Juni +0.5% Revised From -0.3% +0.7%

09:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y Juni -5.1% -3.0%

The euro rose as a slide in stocks around the world fueled demand for the relative safety of the currencies versus emerging-market counterparts.

The yen strengthened against the dollar as Investor expectations of tapering from the Fed are leading to a rise in global yields and that’s making external financing challenging.

The Fed will publish minutes of its July meeting tomorrow that may offer clues as to whether policy makers will start reduce their $85 billion of monthly bond purchases as soon as their gathering in September. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its next meeting on Sept. 17-18.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high at $1.3406 and then retreated to $1.3380 area.

GBP/USD: $1.5680 area continued to be a stong resistance.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased to Y97.00 level.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3440/50, $1.3415/20, $1.3410, $1.3395/400

Bids $1.3360/50, $1.3315/00, $1.3285/75, $1.3255/45

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5750/55, $1.5720/25, $1.5700, $1.5680

Bids $1.5630/25, $1.5610/00, $1.5580/70, $1.5555/50, $1.5505/00

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9230/40, $0.9195/00, $0.9180, $0.9150, $0.9120, $0.9090/00

Bids $0.9020, $0.9000, $0.8950, $0.8920, $0.8900

USD/JPY

Offers Y98.50, Y98.20/30, Y98.00, Y97.85/90, Y97.50/60

Bids Y96.80, Y96.60/50, Y96.00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y131.45/50, Y131.20, Y131.10, Y131.00

Bids Y130.05/00, Y129.50, Y129.20, Y129.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8580/85, stg0.8565/70

Bids stg0.8510/00, stg0.8485/80, stg0.8565/60, stg0.8420, stg0.8470

EUR/USD $1.3225, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.40, Y98.50, Y99.00

GBP/USD $1.5575, $1.5635, $1.5640, $1.5645, $1.5650

USD/CHF Chf0.9200, Chf0.9300

AUD/USD $0.8900, $0.9170, $0.9180, $0.9200, $0.9250

NZD/USD $0.8100, $0.8200

USD/CAD C$1.0295, C$1.0350

EUR/NOK Nok7.8000, Nok7.8020

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter III +2.1% +2.4%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July +1.1% -0.6% -0.6%

The euro traded near the highest level in more than a week before manufacturing and services data that may add to evidence of the region’s strengthening recovery from a six-quarter contraction. An index of activity in manufacturing and services in the euro area probably rose to 50.9 in August from 50.5 a month earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before an Aug. 22 report from London-based Markit Economics. A gauge of manufacturing in Germany, the region’s biggest economy, gained to 51.1 this month from 50.7 in July and the services index climbed to 51.7 from 51.3, a separate poll showed. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

The 17-nation currency rose versus the yen after Germany’s Bundesbank said the European Central Bank may lift interest rates if inflation pressure mounts. The ECB’s commitment “is not an imperative statement, and it doesn’t represent a change” in the monetary policy stance, Germany’s central bank said yesterday in its monthly report. “Forward guidance doesn’t rule out an increase in the benchmark rate if greater inflation pressure emerges.”

The dollar held gains versus most major peers after Treasury yields climbed to a two-year high yesterday and as investors await Federal Reserve meeting minutes due tomorrow for clues on when it will reduce stimulus.

The Australian and New Zealand currencies slid after comments from the nation’s central banks. Minutes released today of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Aug. 6 signaled further interest-rate cuts remain a possibility. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler announced lending restrictions to curtail house prices and said the currency is “over-valued relative to what would be sustainable long-term.”

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y97.30

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5635-55

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair

Data is limited on both sides of the Atlantic and largely second tier. Early data sees the release of the German July PPI data at 0900GMT. Analysts are looking for the monthly data coming in 0.2% higher on the month and 0.7% on year. Further eurozone data is set for release at 0900GMT, when the EMU construction output numbers will be released. With PMI numbers generally better in recent months, analysts are looking for the data to pick up on June's -0.3% m/m and -5.1% y/y.

There is another quiet calendar Thursday, with euro area legislators and central bankers again on the sidelines. Data is limited on both sides of the Atlantic and largely second tier. US data gets underway at 1145GMT with the release of the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data for the August 17 week. Canadian numbers are expected at 1230GMT, when the June wholesale sales numbers will be released. Expectations are for a fall of 0.5% on the month. At 1255GMT, the Redbook Average data for the August 17 week are set to be published. There is also some Mexican data set for release, with the Q2 GDP data and the June Global economic activity IGAE numbers will cross the wires.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3336 -0,10%

GBP/USD $1,5646 +0,01%

USD/CHF Chf0,9241 -0,18%

USD/JPY Y97,63 +0,38%

EUR/JPY Y130,21 +0,28%

GBP/JPY Y152,73 +0,39%

AUD/USD $0,9117 -0,23%

NZD/USD $0,8067 -0,06%

USD/CAD C$1,0344 +0,41%

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 New Zealand Expected Annual Inflation 2y from now Quarter III +2.1% +2.4%

04:30 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) July +0.6% +0.7%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July +1.1% -0.6%

06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) July 0.0% +0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m June -0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y June -5.1%

12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m June +2.3% -0.5%

12:30 U.S. Chicago Federal National Activity Index July -0.13

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories August -1.0