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FXStreet notes that global financial markets have rebounded strongly from their March lows when fears about the COVID-19 health crisis peaked. The S&P 500 index has risen more than 45% since then and has almost fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Economists at UBS review their three current set of scenarios, and forecast S&P 500 at 3,500 by end June 2021 in the central scenario, and at 3,700 and 2,800 in the upside and downside scenario respectively.
“In our central scenario, we expect no renewed nationwide lockdowns. Moderate restrictions on activity should be sufficient to keep outbreaks manageable, with a vaccine widely available from 2Q 2021. This, combined with expansionary monetary policy and a moderate increase in fiscal stimulus, should allow for a rebound of economic activity to pre-pandemic levels by 2022. Against this backdrop, and with yields anchored close to record low levels, we think that the equity risk premium can normalize to pre-pandemic levels and would project the S&P 500 to trade at 3,500 by end June 2021.”
“In our upside scenario, we think a combination of earlier-than-expected vaccine availability, increased fiscal stimulus, status quo in US-China relations, and a 'benign' outcome to the US presidential election would lead to equity risk premia falling below pre-pandemic levels, and we would project the S&P 500 to trade at 3,700 by end June 2021. We would also expect further dollar weakness.”
“In our downside scenario, we would expect the S&P 500 to trade at 2,800 by end June 2021. We think that gold and the Swiss franc are among the best potential hedges for this scenario.”
U.S. stock-index futures rose on Wednesday, following a pullback on Wall Street in the previous session, as oil prices boosted energy stocks, while uncertainty over a second coronavirus stimulus bill weighed on general market sentiment.
Global Stocks:
Index/commodity | Last | Today's Change, points | Today's Change, % |
Nikkei | 22,843.96 | +93.72 | +0.41% |
Hang Seng | 25,244.02 | +353.34 | +1.42% |
Shanghai | 3,319.27 | -21.02 | -0.63% |
S&P/ASX | 6,132.00 | -6.70 | -0.11% |
FTSE | 6,237.03 | +82.69 | +1.34% |
CAC | 5,052.19 | +24.20 | +0.48% |
DAX | 12,959.59 | +12.70 | +0.10% |
Crude oil | $42.42 | +1.95% | |
Gold | $1,945.10 | -0.06% |
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
3M Co | MMM | 165.83 | 2.45(1.50%) | 1355 |
ALCOA INC. | AA | 15.07 | 0.18(1.21%) | 17356 |
ALTRIA GROUP INC. | MO | 43.74 | 0.14(0.32%) | 11306 |
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ | AMZN | 3,098.00 | 17.33(0.56%) | 30512 |
American Express Co | AXP | 105.1 | 1.84(1.78%) | 4368 |
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP | AIG | 32.65 | 0.67(2.10%) | 10120 |
Apple Inc. | AAPL | 442.06 | 4.56(1.04%) | 363990 |
AT&T Inc | T | 30.35 | 0.15(0.50%) | 40270 |
Boeing Co | BA | 183.84 | 3.71(2.06%) | 221887 |
Caterpillar Inc | CAT | 143.89 | 1.36(0.95%) | 3351 |
Chevron Corp | CVX | 91.3 | 1.68(1.87%) | 12091 |
Cisco Systems Inc | CSCO | 47.38 | 0.19(0.40%) | 68883 |
Citigroup Inc., NYSE | C | 55.1 | 1.34(2.49%) | 73078 |
Deere & Company, NYSE | DE | 192.3 | -0.92(-0.48%) | 6734 |
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co | DD | 58.3 | 1.00(1.75%) | 5329 |
Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM | 44.79 | 0.69(1.56%) | 142844 |
Facebook, Inc. | FB | 258.7 | 2.57(1.00%) | 78255 |
FedEx Corporation, NYSE | FDX | 197.9 | 1.45(0.74%) | 2514 |
Ford Motor Co. | F | 7.34 | 0.11(1.52%) | 169446 |
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE | FCX | 14.12 | 0.16(1.15%) | 9657 |
General Electric Co | GE | 6.83 | 0.10(1.49%) | 741148 |
General Motors Company, NYSE | GM | 28.96 | 0.44(1.54%) | 18929 |
Goldman Sachs | GS | 215.26 | 4.20(1.99%) | 10350 |
Hewlett-Packard Co. | HPQ | 18.72 | 0.15(0.81%) | 36429 |
Home Depot Inc | HD | 278 | 3.08(1.12%) | 9242 |
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC. | HON | 162.75 | 2.47(1.54%) | 1714 |
Intel Corp | INTC | 48.66 | 0.47(0.98%) | 134003 |
International Business Machines Co... | IBM | 127.97 | 1.22(0.96%) | 3106 |
International Paper Company | IP | 37.62 | 0.60(1.62%) | 673 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 147.49 | 0.52(0.35%) | 3358 |
JPMorgan Chase and Co | JPM | 106.64 | 2.82(2.72%) | 84198 |
Merck & Co Inc | MRK | 81.2 | 0.29(0.36%) | 1031 |
Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 204.75 | 1.37(0.67%) | 163881 |
Nike | NKE | 105.91 | 0.79(0.75%) | 5380 |
Pfizer Inc | PFE | 38.01 | 0.22(0.58%) | 96725 |
Procter & Gamble Co | PG | 133.7 | 0.47(0.35%) | 1238 |
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ | SBUX | 79.65 | 0.78(0.98%) | 8633 |
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ | TSLA | 1,459.50 | 85.11(6.19%) | 394706 |
The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 48.25 | 0.32(0.67%) | 37541 |
Travelers Companies Inc | TRV | 121.35 | 1.43(1.19%) | 1121 |
Twitter, Inc., NYSE | TWTR | 37.61 | 0.33(0.89%) | 18522 |
UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH | 318.72 | 3.17(1.00%) | 465 |
Verizon Communications Inc | VZ | 58.65 | 0.14(0.24%) | 3456 |
Visa | V | 199.88 | 2.11(1.07%) | 11095 |
Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT | 130.86 | 0.66(0.51%) | 45212 |
Walt Disney Co | DIS | 131.4 | 0.91(0.70%) | 21714 |
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ | YNDX | 57.36 | 0.36(0.63%) | 31328 |
Home Depot (HD) target raised to $290 from $250 at Telsey Advisory Group
Deere (DE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; target $185
Barrick (GOLD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity
Home Depot (HD) upgraded to Accumulate from Hold at Gordon Haskett; target $306
| Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKKEI 225 | 420.3 | 22750.24 | 1.88 |
| Hang Seng | 513.25 | 24890.68 | 2.11 |
| KOSPI | 32.29 | 2418.67 | 1.35 |
| ASX 200 | 28.5 | 6138.7 | 0.47 |
| FTSE 100 | 103.75 | 6154.34 | 1.71 |
| DAX | 259.36 | 12946.89 | 2.04 |
| CAC 40 | 118.48 | 5027.99 | 2.41 |
| Dow Jones | -104.53 | 27686.91 | -0.38 |
| S&P 500 | -26.78 | 3333.69 | -0.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite | -185.54 | 10782.82 | -1.69 |
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