Forex-novosti i prognoze od 07-12-2011

The euro rose against the dollar, erasing earlier losses, as some stocks advanced and optimism increased that European leaders will be able to agree on measures to help solve the region’s debt crisis.

The euro dropped earlier against most of its counterparts after a German government official said the nation rejects proposals to combine current and permanent euro-area rescue funds.

The European Central Bank is forecast to announce an interest-rate cut tomorrow and European leaders gather for a summit in Brussels during the next two days.

The official’s comments came after the Financial Times reported yesterday that European Union leaders may agree on a package including the existing 440 billion euro ($588 billion) bailout fund and a new 500 billion euro facility.

U.S. stocks erased losses as a rally in retailers. Dow still holding gains of about 20 points, though was up 40 a short while ago. Nasdaq is down 6.

U.S. stocks fell, following a two-day advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid growing pessimism that European leaders will reach agreement on measures to ease the debt crisis at a summit this week.

Dow 12,151 +0.37 0.00%, Nasdaq 2,641 -8.42 -0.32%, S&P 500 1,255 -3.51 -0.28%

Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) fell 3.8 percent to $36.80. Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) slipped 3.6 percent to $15.74. Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (ANR) retreated 2.2 percent to $24.34.

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) advanced 7.7 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $49.64. Warren Buffett’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings unit agreed to buy the company’s $2 billion Topaz Solar Farm project in California. Financial terms weren’t disclosed.

Talbots Inc. (TLB) surged 63 percent to $2.54. The purveyor of women’s apparel said it would “evaluate” Sycamore Partners LP’s offer to buy the retailer for $212 million. The private- equity firm had said in a regulatory filing that it had offered to acquire all of the company’s shares for $3 apiece.

FTSE 100 5,547 -21.81 -0.39%

CAC 40 3,176 -3.65 -0.11%

Xetra DAX 5,995 -34.09 -0.57%

Gold futures rose for the first time in three days as the European Central Bank was said to be planning to announce measures to bolster lending, reviving demand for the precious metal as an inflation hedge.

Steps being considered include loosening collateral standards to give institutions more access to cheap ECB cash and offering them longer-term loans to aid the flow of credit to the economy, said three European officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. Two said an interest-rate cut is likely. Earlier, the metal fell as much as 0.5 percent.

Oil extended losses, falling below $100 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in inventories.

Supplies rose 1.34 million barrels to 336.1 million last week, the Energy Department said today.

Crude oil for January delivery fell $1.26, or 1.2 percent, to $100.02 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price, which was $101.06, slipped as low as $99.92 after the report. Yesterday, the contract added 29 cents to $101.28, the highest settlement since Nov. 16.

Oil also fell after a German official raised doubts that there will be an agreement at the European summit this week. Futures fell 0.6 percent as Germany rejected proposals to combine the current and permanent euro-area rescue funds and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government said it was more pessimistic on the meeting’s outcome.

Germany will oppose any attempt to change an agreed sequence in which the permanent European Stability Mechanism will take over from the current rescue fund at an appointed time, a German official told reporters in Berlin today on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.

Resistance 3:1300 (psychological mark)

Resistance 2:1288 (high of October)

Resistance 1:1267/70 (session high, Nov 14 high)

Current price: 1249.00

Support 1 : 1245 (session low, Dec 6 low)

Support 2 : 1235 (Dec 1 low)

Support 3 : 1221 (38,2 % FIBO 1147-1267)

Data:

09:30 UK Industrial production (October) -0.7%

09:30 UK Industrial production (October) Y/Y -1.7%

09:30 UK Manufacturing output (October) -0.7%

09:30 UK Manufacturing output (October) Y/Y 0.3%

11:00 Germany Industrial production (October) seasonally adjusted 0.8%

11:00 Germany Industrial production (October) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y 4.1%

The euro declined after a German government official said the nation rejects proposals to combine current and permanent euro-area rescue funds.

Germany rejects proposals to combine the current and permanent euro-area rescue funds, the government official told reporters in Berlin today on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.

The official’s comments came after the Financial Times reported yesterday that EU leaders may agree on a package including the existing 440 billion euro bailout fund and a new 500 billion euro facility.

Economists predict the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate at a policy meeting tomorrow.

EUR/USD: during european session the pair decreased below $1,3400.

GBP/USD: the pair was in $1.5590-$ 1,5640 area.

USD/JPY: the pair has decreased in Y77.60 area.

EUR/USD 

Offers $1.3500/10, $1.3470, $1.3420/25, $1.3400

Bids $1.3360/50, $1.3330, $1.3310/00, $1.3280

Resistance 3: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.30 (Nov 4 and 29 high) 

Resistance 1: Y77.95 (resistance line from Oct 31)

Current price: Y77.72

Support 1:Y77.60 (session low)

Support 2:Y77.30 (Nov 30 low, МА (200) for Н4)

Support 3:Y77.00 (Nov 24 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9370 (high of March)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9330/40 (Nov 25 high and high of April) 

Resistance 1: Chf0.9300 (area of Dec 6 high)

Current price: Chf0.9272

Support 1: Chf0.9230   (area of session low and support line from Dec 1)

Support 2: Chf0.9160   (Dec 5 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9110/00 (area of Dec 2 low)

Resistance 3: $ 1.5715   (Dec 5 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.5660 (Dec 6 high, resistance line from Nov 30)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5640   (session high)

Current price: $1.5612

Support 1 : $1.5590 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5560 (Dec 6 low)

Support 3 : $1.5520/00 (area of Nov 30 low and the bottom border of the down channel from Nov 30)

Resistance 3: $ 1.3550 (Dec 2 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.3490/00 (area of Dec 5 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.3400 (low of asian session)

Current price: $1.3371

Support 1 : $1.3370 (area of session low)

Support 2 : $1.3330 (Dec 6 low, support line from Nov 25)

Support 3 : $1.3260 (Nov 30 low)

U.S. Confident Europe Will Succeed

Nikkei 225 8,722 +147.01 +1.71%

Hang Seng 19,238 +295.84 +1.56%

S&P/ASX 4,292 +30.48 +0.72%

Shanghai Composite 4,292 +30.48 +0.72%

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III +1.2% +1.2% +1.0%  

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III +1.4% +2.3% +2.5%

The euro rose against the majority of its 16 main counterparts amid speculation Europe will expand funds available to the region’s most-indebted nations as leaders prepare to meet in Brussels tomorrow.

The 17-nation euro snapped a three-day decline versus the yen after the Financial Times reported yesterday that Europe may combine temporary and planned permanent rescue facilities to bolster its bailout resources. The European Central Bank is forecast to cut interest rates tomorrow. The euro rose 0.3 percent. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner yesterday backed a German-French push for closer European cooperation, urging policy makers to work with central banks to erect a “stronger firewall” to end the crisis.

Losses in the dollar were limited on speculation the euro area will need time to defuse its crisis and Japan will face the risk of a credit-rating downgrade, increasing demand for the greenback as a refuge.

Standard & Poor’s is “closer to a downgrade” of Japan’s AA- rating. Japan-based Rating & Investment Information Inc., which has rated the nation at AAA since 2000,  it may cut the ranking by year-end

Australia’s dollar rose against most major peers after a report showed the nation’s economy grew faster than estimated last quarter. The so-called Aussie dollar advanced as signs of resilience in the U.S. and Australian economies supported demand for higher-yielding assets.

EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair rose.

GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair advanced.

USD/JPY: on Asian session  the pair traded in range Y77.60-Y77.80.

Yesterday the euro fell against yen after Standard & Poor’s warned it may downgrade the European Financial Stability Fund, reinforcing concern that policy makers haven’t contained the region’s debt crisis. The 17-nation euro fluctuated against the dollar as U.S. stocks rose. The euro area’s six AAA rated countries are among those placed on a negative outlook, and their ratings may be cut depending on the result of a summit of European leaders on Dec. 9, S&P said yesterday in a statement. The company said ratings may be cut by one level for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, and by up to two levels for the other governments.

The Swiss franc weakened against all its major counterparts after consumer prices dropped in November. S&P added the bailout fund today to the 15 euro nations placed on a negative outlook yesterday before a summit meeting this week.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair traded nearby $1.3400.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell having lost a floor of a figure.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y77.65-Y77.85.                                

European data for Wednesday starts at 0745GMT with foreign trade data from France. Germany industrial output data then follows, at 1100GMT. UK data sees the latest Index of Production data, where Industrial Production is expected to come in at -0.3% m/m, -0.7% y/y and Manufacturing Output is expected to come in at -0.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y. US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, while at 2000GMT, Treasury Allotments By Class data is due at the same time as Consumer credit usage is expected to rise $7.5 billion in October after see-sawing in the previous two months.

Asian stocks rose for a sixth day, with Asia’s benchmark index headed for its longest winning streak since Oct. 13, as Italy took steps to trim its debt before European Union leaders meet this week to tackle the region’s crisis.

Stocks gained after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti yesterday announced 30 billion euros ($40 billion) of austerity and growth measures. Monti will present the package, which includes a tax on luxury goods, resurrects a property levy on first homes, and forces many workers to delay retirement, to both houses of parliament today. German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets French President Nicolas Sarkozy today to advance a plan for stricter enforcement of the region’s deficit rules that will be presented to European leaders at a summit in Brussels on Dec. 9.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.6 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced 0.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.7 percent.

Banking shares gave the biggest boost to the MSCI Asia Pacific index amid optimism Europe’s debt crisis won’t damage the global financial system. Six central banks led by the Federal Reserve on Nov. 30 introduced measures to lower dollar borrowing costs for European lenders.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group advanced 2.1 percent to 345 yen, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan’s second- biggest bank by market value, gained 2.2 percent to 2,212 yen. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia’s biggest lender by market value, rose 0.8 percent to A$49.96.

Exporters to the U.S. advanced. Li & Fung added 3.3 percent to HK$16.94 in Hong Kong. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker by market value, gained 2.7 percent to 2,663 yen in Tokyo.

Gains in Asian stocks were limited as Chinese stocks fell after a purchasing managers’ index for November dropped to 49.7 from 57.7 the previous month, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on its website. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the biggest Chinese stock exchange, slid 1.2 percent.

Anhui Conch Cement Co., China’s largest maker of the building material, dropped 2.1 percent to HK$25.75 in Hong Kong. China Railway Group Ltd., which is helping build the mainland’s train rail system, dropped 3.4 percent to HK$2.55.

Australian mining companies rose after the nation ended a ban on uranium exports to India to open a new market for suppliers and strengthen diplomatic ties between the countries.

Energy Resources, controlled by Rio Tinto Group, rose 9.8 percent to A$1.57 at the close of trading in Sydney. Exploration company Deep Yellow surged 10 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd. rose 1.7 percent to A$37.26 and Rio Tinto gained 1 percent to A$67.

European stocks rose, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index extending its biggest weekly rally since November 2008, as Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti introduced a proposal to cut his nation’s debt.

Monti presented a plan to reduce the European Union’s second-biggest debt to the Chamber of Deputies in Rome today. The budget package came at the start of a critical week for Europe’s efforts to prevent Italy and Spain from succumbing to the crisis and causing a breakup of the single currency. France and Germany want a new EU treaty to set out the rules for euro-area governments, President Nicolas Sarkozy said after meeting Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merkel and Sarkozy are developing a plan for stricter enforcement of the region’s deficit rules that they will present to EU leaders at a summit on Dec. 9.

National benchmark indexes climbed in every western- European market. France’s CAC 40 Index advanced 1.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.3 percent. Germany’s DAX Index increased 0.4 percent.

A gauge of European banks advanced 2.5 percent. UniCredit, Italy’s biggest lender, jumped 5.4 percent to 83.6 euro cents. Intesa Sanpaolo added 3.9 percent to 1.35 euros and BNP Paribas, France’s largest bank, rose 4.9 percent to 33.16 euros.

SAP slipped 2.5 percent to 43.61 euros. The German software maker agreed to buy San Mateo, California-based SuccessFactors on Dec. 3 to better meet demand for new technologies such as cloud computing, real-time analytics and mobile applications.

Commerzbank AG declined 4.1 percent to 1.44 euros as Germany’s second-largest bank offered to repurchase as much as 600 million euros of hybrid equity instruments.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher a second day, on speculation European leaders may act to contain the debt crisis after S&P put 15 euro nations on review for possible downgrade.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said S&P’s warning will help force European leaders to ratchet up efforts to resolve the crisis. Six nations may lose their AAA ratings depending on the result of a summit of European Union leaders this week, S&P said yesterday. S&P today said the European Financial Stability Facility may lose its top credit rating if any of its guarantors have their own debt grade cut.

Financial stocks in the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent as a group. JPMorgan declined 1.1 percent to $33.15. Citigroup lost 1.6 percent to $29.34.

Darden fell 11 percent to $42.28. Full-year earnings per share growth from continuing operations will be 4 percent to 7 percent, down from a previous forecast of 12 percent to 15 percent, the Orlando, Florida-based company said today in a statement. Total sales growth will be 6 percent to 7 percent, reduced from a prior forecast of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

A measure of transportation shares had the biggest decline in the S&P 500 among 24 industries, falling 1 percent. Union Pacific Corp. lost 2.3 percent to $102.20. CSX Corp. declined 1.6 percent to $21.68.

3M rallied 1.6 percent to $82.24. Sales may be $30.2 billion to $31.5 billion, according to a presentation on the company’s website, in line with the $30.6 billion average estimate from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The maker of Scotch-Brite sponges and Nexcare thermometers expects earnings per share of $6.25 to $6.50 next year, also tracking estimates.

GE added 2.3 percent to $16.71. Sanford C. Bernstein raised its recommendation for the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company to “outperform” from “market perform,” citing rising dividends and energy orders starting in 2012.

MetroPCS Communications Inc. added 7.1 percent to $8.94 for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The pay-as-you-go U.S. wireless carrier was raised to “outperform” from “market perform” at William Blair & Co., which said the stock’s price doesn’t reflect the company’s “ healthy balance sheet.”

Resistance 3: Y78.30 (Nov 4 and 29 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.10 (Dec 5 high)

Resistance 1: Y77.85 (Dec 6 high)

The current price: Y77.70

Support 1:Y77.60 (session low)

Support 2:Y77.30 (Nov 30 low)

Support 3:Y77.00 (Nov 24 low)

Comments: the pair is on downtrend. In focus support Y76.10.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9305 (Nov 28 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9285 (Oct 7 high, high of the American session on Dec 6)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9265 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9251

Support 1: Chf0.9235 (support line from Dec 1)

Support 2: Chf0.9215 (low of the European session on Dec 6)

Support 3: Chf0.9200 (Dec 6 low)

Comments: the pair is on uptrend. In focus resistance Chf0.9265.

Resistance 3 : $1.5685 (resistance line from Dec 1)

Resistance 2 : $1.5660 (Dec 6 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5635 (MA(233) H1)

The current price: $1.5608

Support 1 : $1.5590 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5560 (Dec 6 low)

Support 3 : $1.5525 (Nov 30 low)

Comments: the pair is on downtrend. In focus support $1.5590.

Resistance 3: $1.3520 (Dec 1 high)

Resistance 2: $1.3485 (Dec 5 high)

Resistance 1: $1.3460 (high of the European session on Dec 5)

The current price: $1.3435

Support 1 : $1.3400 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3360 (low of the American session on Dec 6)

Support 3 : $1.3330 (Dec 6 low)

Comments: the pair is corrected in downtrend. In focus resistance $1.3430.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,575 -120.82 -1.39%

Hang Seng 18,942 -237.46 -1.24%

S&P/ASX 200 4,262 -59.35 -1.37%

Shanghai Composite 2,326 -7.32 -0.31%

FTSE 100 5,569 +0.76 +0.01%

CAC 40 3,180 -21.65 -0.68%

DAX 6,029 -77.27 -1.27%

Dow 12,150.13 +52.30 +0.43%

Nasdaq 2,649.56 -6.20 -0.23%

S&P 500 1,258.47 +1.39 +0.11%

10 Year Yield 2.09% +0.04 --

Oil $100.97 -0.31 -0.31%

Gold $1,731.90 +0.10 +0.01%

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter III +1.2% +1.2%

00:30 Australia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter III +1.4% +2.3%

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate November 3.0% 3.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) October 0.0% -0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) October -0.7% -0.7%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) October +0.2% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) October +2.0% +1.4%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) October -2.7% +0.3%

11:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) October +5.4% +3.5%

15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate November +0.5%

15:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change неделя по 2 декабря +3.9

20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit October 7.4 7.0

20:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 0 2.50% 2.50%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders October -8.2% +0.8%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y October +9.8% +9.4%

23:50 Japan Current Account Total, bln October 1584.8 507.2