Forex-novosti i prognoze od 08-12-2011

The euro fell after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he didn’t signal stepping up bond purchases to spur growth.

The euro reached the lowest level this month versus the greenback, reversing brief gains, after Draghi’s comments damped speculation that the ECB would expand its bond- buying role to stem the region’s debt crisis.

Draghi said during a press conference in Frankfurt that he was “kind of surprised by the implicit meaning” that was given to his comments last week when he said the ECB could follow faster fiscal union with “other elements.”

Currently:

Dow 12,090.45 -105.92 -0.87%

Nasdaq 2,620.50 -28.71 -1.08%

S&P 1,243.80 -17.21 -1.36% 

U.S. stocks fell after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi poured cold water on investor hopes for more aggressive easing measures. Market sentiment turned negative after Draghi deflected questions about more bond buying and the central bank gave no new plans to bail out debt-laden governments. As expected, the ECB cut its key lending rate to 1% from 1.25%, but the bank stopped well short of committing to buying more government bonds. Coming just ahead of a key summit in which euro-zone leaders are expected to unveil new plans to combat the region's sovereign-debt crisis, the comments disappointed those who bet on more aggressive bond buying to defuse the European sovereign-debt crisis.

FTSE   5,484 -63.14 -1.14%

CAC   3,095 -80.49 -2.53%

DAX 5,874 -120.29 -2.01%

Gold fell after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he didn’t signal plans to purchase more bonds to spur growth.

Gold futures for February delivery declined 1.77% to $1,713.30 an ounce.

Currently oil futures for delivery on Jan’2012 are trading at $98,62 per barrel, session low set at $98,27 per barrel.

Oil declined as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled the ECB won’t increase purchases of government bonds to stem the debt crisis.

Currently the pair is trading in $1,3290 area.

Next suppor - $1,3260 area (Nov 30 low).

Resistance 3:1288 (high of October)

Resistance 2:1267/70 (Dec 7 high, Nov 14 high)

Resistance 1:1267/70 (intra day low) 

Current price: 1246.00

Support 1 : 1240 (session low)

Support 2 : 1235 (Dec 1 low)

Support 3 : 1221 (38,2 % FIBO 1147-1267)

• ECB sees 2012 HICP 1.5% to 2.5%, Sep fct 1.2% to 2.2%
• ECB sees 2013 HICP 0.8% to 2.2%
• ECB sees 2013 GDP 0.3% to 2.3%
• ECB sees 2011 GDP 1.5% to 1.7%, Sep fcst 1.4% to 1.8%
• ECB sees 2012 GDP -0.4% to 1.0%, Sep fcst 0.4% to 2.2%

• non-standard measures are by construction temporary.

• non-standard measures are by construction temporary.

• ECB will reduce reserve ratio to 1% from 2%;
• new reserve ratio to take effect Jan 18 2012;
• ECB to conduct two 36-month refi ops.

ECB will reduce reserve ratio to 1% from 2%;

new reserve ratio to take effect Jan 18 2012;

ECB to conduct two 36-month refi ops.

Data:

12:00 UK BoE meeting announcement 0.50%

12:45 EU(17) ECB meeting announcement 1.00%

The euro fell  as the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate in a bid to avoid a recession.

The euro weakened versus major peers as policy makers cut the refinancing rate by a quarter percentage point to 1 percent.

The ECB may loosen collateral criteria to give banks greater access to cash, three euro-area officials with knowledge of the deliberations said yesterday. The Bank of England kept its key rate at a record low 0.5 percent today.

The euro weakened earlier on concern nations such as Germany and France will lose their AAA credit ratings if European leaders fail to agree a plan to curb the debt crisis at a two-day meeting in Brussels starting today.

EUR/USD: after ECB decision the euro grown in area $1,3420, but fell later.

GBP/USD: most part of european session the pair was in $1.5690-$ 1,5740 area.

USD/JPY: the pair has decreased in Y77.30 area.

ECB cutting rate by the widely expected 25bp caused rate to

jump up to $1.3425, from around $1.3380. Reaction seen as some had suggested room to cut rate by up to 50bps. Focus now turns to ECB Draghi press conference.

Resistance 3: Y78.00 (resistance line from Nov 29)

Resistance 2: Y77.80 (Dec 7 high)

Resistance 1: Y77.55 (middle line from Nov 29)

The current price: Y77.38

Support 1:Y77.30 (session low, Nov 30 low)

Support 2:Y77.00 (Nov 24 low)

Support 3:Y76.55 (Nov 18 low)

Resistance 3: Chf0.9305 (Nov 28 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9285 (Dec 7 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9250 (session high)

The current price: Chf0.9235

Support 1: Chf0.9205/15 (session low, MA (233) H1)

Support 2: Chf0.9180 (50.0% FIBO Chf0.9295-Chf0.9065)

Support 3: Chf0.9150 (61.8% FIBO Chf0.9295-Chf0.9065)

Resistance 3 : $1.5800 (Nov 21 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5780 (Nov 30 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5740 (session low)

The current price: $1.5703

Support 1 : $1.5690 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5645 (MA (233) H1)

Support 3 : $1.5590 (Dec 7 low)

European stocks rose amid speculation the European Central Bank will announce measures to boost the economy as the region’s leaders meet to lay the foundations for a fiscal union. U.S. futures fluctuated and Asian shares fell.

CAC 5,561 +14.10 +0.25%

FTSE 3,183 +7.44 +0.23%

DAX 6,030 +35.62 +0.59%

BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, the biggest French bank, advanced 1.6 percent to 33.51 euros. Results of tests from the European banking regulator released today will show French lenders’ capital shortfall shrank from the October estimate of 8.8 billion euros ($11.8 billion), a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Tesco Plc (TSCO) slipped 1.4 percent to 391.4 pence. The U.K.’s largest supermarket chain said a sales decline continued in the third quarter as cost-conscious Britons were weighed down by unemployment fears and rising fuel and food bills. Revenue at U.K. stores open at least a year fell 0.9 percent, excluding fuel and value-added tax, in the three months ended Nov. 26.

• Need Automatic Trigger For Euro Area Sanctions
• Intervention In National Budgets Has To Be Limited
• UK Mustn't Get Special Rules For Financial Market
• Summit Can Calm Situation If Right Decisions Taken

Juncker Agrees To Most Of Franco-German Proposals In Paper Interview

Nikkei 225 8,665 -57.59 -0.66%

Hang Seng 19,098 -142.53 -0.74%

S&P/ASX 4,281 -11.78 -0.27%

Shanghai Composite 2,330 -2.91 -0.12%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate November 5.2% 5.2% 5.3%  

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed November 10.1K 10.6K -6.3%  

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current November 45.9 47.1 45.0  

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook November 45.9 44.7  

07:20 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech

The yen and dollar rose against most major peers as Asian stocks declined amid signs of a slowdown in the region’s economies, boosting demand for refuge currencies.

Australia’s dollar slid against 14 of its 16 most-traded counterparts after a government report showed employers cut jobs for the first time in three months.

The euro snapped a decline against the Swiss franc before a European Central Bank meeting and a summit in Brussels to discuss the region’s problems.

The European Central Bank may announce a range of measures tomorrow to stimulate bank lending, according to three euro-area officials.

Canada’s dollar declined from the strongest level in a month as renewed concern Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will worsen spurred an increase in risk aversion among investors. Canada’s currency has been the fourth-best performer after the U.S. dollar, yen and pound over the past three months against the euro among the most-traded currencies, gaining 2.4 percent, as investors sought refuge from the prospect of a global recession.

EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair holds in range $1.3390-$1.3410.

GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair holds in range $1.5690-$1.5720.

USD/JPY: on Asian session  the pair fell.

On Thursday the Bank of England MPC makes it's announcement at 1200GMT but this meeting is expected to be a non-event. Analysts are expecting the BOE to press on with its current round of Stg75 billion of quantitative easing, which is scheduled to be completed ahead of the February MPC meeting. The ECB announces it's rate decision at 1245GMT with the usual press conference following on at 1330GMT. The ECB is likely to cut interest rates and launch further liquidity support measures this Thursday, but it should not be expected to unveil aggressive measures to help control the borrowing costs of Eurozone governments.

Yesterday the euro declined after a German government official said the nation rejects proposals to combine current and permanent euro-area rescue funds. Germany rejects proposals to combine the current and permanent euro-area rescue funds, the government official told reporters in Berlin today on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private. The official’s comments came after the Financial Times reported yesterday that EU leaders may agree on a package including the existing 440 billion euro bailout fund and a new 500 billion euro facility.

Economists predict the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate at a policy meeting.

But later the euro rose against the dollar, erasing earlier losses, as some stocks advanced and optimism increased that European leaders will be able to agree on measures to help solve the region’s debt crisis.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair has lost a floor of a figure, but restored later.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair has grown on a figure.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y77.60-Y77.80.                         

On Thursday the Bank of England MPC makes it's announcement at 1200GMT but this meeting is expected to be a non-event. Analysts are expecting the BOE to press on with its current round of Stg75 billion of quantitative easing, which is scheduled to be completed ahead of the February MPC meeting. The ECB announces it's rate decision at 1245GMT with the usual press conference following on at 1330GMT. The ECB is likely to cut interest rates and launch further liquidity support measures this Thursday, but it should not be expected to unveil aggressive measures to help control the borrowing costs of Eurozone governments.

Asian stocks rose on speculation European leaders meeting this week in Brussels will step up efforts to fight the debt crisis and stave off lower national credit ratings that may make funding bailouts more costly.

Greek Prime Minister Papademos received parliamentary approval for a 2012 budget that aims to almost halve the deficit shortfall from a debt writedown and ensure Greece remains a member of the euro area.

Company news:

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines surged 11% after saying it plans to form a pool of oil tankers with four other companies to cut costs. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. gained 7.3%.

Hyundai Development Co. , a builder from South Korea, rose 7.9 percent to 19,800 won in Seoul after the government said it will cut transfer taxes on owners of more than one house and will lower interest rates on loans for first-home buyers.

LG Chem Ltd.  sank 5.6%. Maeil Business Newspaper reported the company will spin off its battery business next year, citing an unnamed company official. LG Chem spokesman Owen Sung denied the report.

European stocks dropped after Germany rejected combining the current and permanent euro-area rescue funds and expressed pessimism over the outcome of a European Union summit this week.

National benchmark indexes fell in 12 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index declined 0.1 percent.

Germany said it opposes any change in the agreed sequence in which the the region’s bailout funds will be used. It stands by the current agreement that the permanent European Stability Mechanism will take over from the European Financial Stability Facility by the middle of next year, a German government official told reporters in Berlin today on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.

The statement followed a report in the Financial Times that said officials are negotiating a plan to run the EFSF even after the ESM starts operations. The proposal is part of a bigger rescue effort they will discuss at the EU summit in Brussels tomorrow and Dec. 9

Company news:

IATA said the airline industry’s profits next year will fall 49 percent, more than it had predicted previously. Deutsche Lufthansa AG declined 4.1% while SAS AB  slipped 0.5%.

Verbund AG climbed 3%. Morgan Stanley raised its shares to “overweight” from “equal weight.”

Carillion Plc jumped 4.2%. The company said it expects its debt to drop below 100 million pounds ($156 million) by end of the year, beating its earlier target of 125 million pounds. The stock was raised to “buy” from “hold” at Collins Stewart Hawkpoint Plc.

U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since October, amid optimism that European leaders will announce further efforts to halt the debt crisis at a summit this week.

JPMorgan (JPM) Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. rose at least 1.9 percent to lead gains in the Dow. Financial shares increased the most among groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, rallying 1.2 percent after an earlier loss. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) dropped 1.1 percent, pacing declines among industrial companies, while Peabody Energy Corp. fell 3.4 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its ratings on coal producers.

Company news:

Coal producers declined after Goldman Sachs cut its view on the industry to “neutral” from “attractive,” citing proposed regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency. Peabody Energy fell 3.4 percent to $36.95. Arch Coal Inc. (ACI) slipped 3.4 percent to $15.77. Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (ANR) retreated 0.9 percent to $24.66.

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction and mining equipment, lost 1.1 percent to $94.89 for the biggest drop in the Dow.

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) advanced 4.1 percent to $47.99. Warren Buffett’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings unit agreed to buy the company’s $2 billion Topaz Solar Farm project in California. Financial terms weren’t disclosed. SAIC Inc. (SAI) had the second-biggest advance in the S&P 500, rising 6.6 percent to $12.95. The defense contractor specializing in computer services reported third-quarter sales that beat analysts’ estimates.

Talbots Inc. (TLB) surged 70 percent to $2.65. The purveyor of women’s apparel said it would “evaluate” Sycamore Partners LP’s offer to buy the retailer for $212 million. The private- equity firm had said in a regulatory filing that it had offered to acquire all of the company’s shares for $3 apiece.

Resistance 3: Y78.30 (Nov 4 and 29 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.00 (resistance line from Nov 29) 

Resistance 1: Y77.80 (Dec 7 high)

The current price: Y77.65

Support 1:Y77.60 (session low)

Support 2:Y77.30 (Nov 30 low)

Support 3:Y77.00 (Nov 24 low)

Comments: the pair is on downtrend. In focus support Y77.60.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9305 (Nov 28 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9285 (Dec 7 high)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9265 (high of the Asian session on Dec 7)

The current price: Chf0.9250

Support 1: Chf0.9225 (Dec 7 low)

Support 2: Chf0.9200 (MA (233) H1)

Support 3: Chf0.9180 (50.0% FIBO Chf0.9295-Chf0.9065)

Comments: the pair is on uptrend. In focus resistance Chf0.9265.

Resistance 3 : $1.5780 (Nov 30 high)

Resistance 2 : $1.5755 (Dec 1 high)

Resistance 1 : $1.5715 (session low)

The current price: $1.5706

Support 1 : $1.5690 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.5645 (MA(233) H1)

Support 3 : $1.5590 (Dec 7 low)

Comments: the pair is on uptrend. In focus resistance $1.5715.

Resistance 3: $1.3485 (Dec 5 high)

Resistance 2: $1.3450 (Dec 7 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.3425 (high of the American session on Dec 7)

The current price: $1.3400

Support 1 : $1.3390 (session low)

Support 2 : $1.3360 (support line from Dec 6)

Support 3 : $1.3330 (Dec 6 low)

Comments: the pair is corrected remains in downtrend. In focus resistance $1.3430.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei   8,722 +147.01 +1.71%

Hang Seng 19,241 +298.35 +1.58%

S&P/ASX   4,292 0.00 0.00%

Shanghai Composite  2,333 +6.82 +0.29%

FTSE   5,547 -21.81 -0.39%

CAC   3,176 -3.65 -0.11%

DAX  5,995 -34.09 -0.57%

Dow 12,196.37 +46.24 +0.38%

Nasdaq 2,649.21 -0.35 -0.01%

S&P 1,261.01 +2.54 +0.20%

10 Year Yield 2.02% -0.08

Oil $100.70 +0.21 +0.21%

Gold $1,746.10 +1.30 +0.07%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate November 5.2% 5.2% 5.3%  

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed November 10.1K 10.6K -6.3%  

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current November 45.9 47.1 45.0  

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook November 45.9 44.7  

07:20 Australia RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech 0

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0 0.50% 0.50%

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 1.25% 1.00%

13:15 Canada Housing Starts November 207.6K 203.0K

13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index October +0.2% +0.5%

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference 0

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims неделя по 3 ноября 402K 397K

15:30 Canada Bank of Canada publishes financial system review 0

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q Quarter III +1.5% +1.3%

23:50 Japan GDP, y/y Quarter III +6.0% +5.1%