Forex-novosti i prognoze od 20-12-2011

The euro rallied to a one-week high against the dollar after borrowing costs fell at a Spanish bill sale and German business confidence unexpectedly increased, easing concern the region’s debt crisis is worsening. The euro strengthened after the Ifo institute’s business climate index for Germany, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, rose to 107.2 this month from 106.6 in November, boosting optimism that Europe’s largest economy will avoid a recession next year. Economists expected a drop to 106, the median of 36 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. Spanish two-year notes rose for an eighth day and Italian bonds gained as the European Central Bank offered unlimited three-year loans to the region’s banks, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets, amid speculation banks bought the debt to use as collateral for ECB loans.

The U.S. currency fell against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg on reduced demand for a refuge as builders broke ground in November on the most houses in more than a year, adding to evidence of economic recovery. мU.S. housing starts increased 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since April 2010, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed to a more than one-year high. IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the greenback against the currencies of six major trading partners, decreased 0.6 percent to 79.832.

The yen weakened against most its major peers as government documents showed the Finance Ministry plans to raise the issuance limit for bills to fund currency intervention to 195 trillion yen ($2.5 trillion), the first increase since Sept. 30. The currency increased to a post-World War II record of 75.35 yen per dollar on Oct. 31.

European stocks posted their biggest rally this month as banks climbed after a report showed German business confidence unexpectedly rose for a second month.

Stocks gained after German business confidence climbed in December, suggesting Europe’s largest economy is weathering the euro area’s debt crisis. The gauge of business confidence, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, rose to 107.2 from 106.6 in November, the Munich-based Ifo institute said today. The median economist forecast called for a drop to 106.

In the U.K., consumer confidence rose in November from a record low as Britons’ expectations for the economy improved in the run-up to Christmas, Nationwide Building Society said.

Spain sold 5.64 billion euros ($7.4 billion) of three-month and six-month bills, the Bank of Spain said, compared with the maximum target of 4.5 billion euros that the Treasury had set for the sale.

The average yield on the three-month debt dropped to 1.735 percent, compared with 5.110 percent when the securities were last issued on Nov. 22. The average six-month yield fell to 2.435 percent from 5.227 percent last month.

National benchmark indexes climbed in every western- European market except Iceland. France’s CAC 40 Index added 2.7 percent, Germany’s DAX Index jumped 3.1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 1 percent.

Lenders paced advancing shares today. UniCredit rallied 6.3 percent to 74 euro cents. BNP Paribas surged 6 percent to 30.14 euros and Intesa climbed 5.8 percent to 1.29 euros.

Arkema soared 9.1 percent to 51.98 euros. The company, which is cheaper than any rival industrial-chemical producer, may be a takeover target for Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) and DuPont Co. after deciding to spin off its unprofitable vinyls business.

Bayer rose 5 percent to 46.99 euros after the drugmaker said four of its medicines in development may contribute a combined 5 billion euros to annual revenue.

U.S. stocks climbed, following yesterday’s slump in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as better- than-estimated data on housing starts added to expectations the world’s largest economy will weather Europe’s debt crisis. Stocks rose today after a Commerce Department report showed that housing starts increased 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level since April 2010. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed to a more than one-year high.

Dow 12,038.19 +271.93 +2.31%, Nasdaq 2,593.81 +70.67 +2.80%, S&P 500 1,234.82 +29.47 +2.44%

Financial companies rebounded today. JPMorgan advanced 3.4 percent to $31.75. The shares lost 3.7 percent yesterday. Bank of America, which yesterday ended at the lowest level since March 2009, gained 2.7 percent to $5.12.

Jefferies rallied 18 percent to $13.90. The investment bank that’s been fighting speculation about its financial strength rose after fiscal fourth-quarter profit beat estimates on a recovery in fixed-income trading. Jefferies may not have to raise more equity after reducing assets on its balance sheet, Sean Egan of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. said today on CNBC.

Sprint Nextel jumped 2.3 percent to $2.21. AT&T failed to convince the Justice Department, which sued to block the transaction in August, that it could remedy the market impact of absorbing T-Mobile, the nation’s No. 4 mobile-phone operator. AT&T would have spent months in litigation to try to win court approval, and the company also faced possible opposition from the Federal Communications Commission. AT&T (T) gained 1.2 percent to $29.07.

Gold prices rise as the euro rose against the dollar, but growth is constrained by concerns that the policy will not be able to cope with the debt crisis in the eurozone. At the same time, gold may go down in value in the fourth quarter for the first time in three years, since the dollar is rising against the euro against the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Eurozone ministers on Monday agreed to increase IMF resources to 150 billion euros, but because Britain refused to participate in this, it remains unclear whether the euro area to get the required 200 billion euros. Support the market today has had a sharp decline in short-term government bond yields in Spain, along with good statistics in Germany at the height of the crisis in the region.

Today, December gold futures trading at the New York Stock Exchange on the Comex rose to 1615.00 dollars per troy ounce.

Today, crude oil futures continued to rise on Monday launched. The reason for this are concerns about the geopolitical situation in the world. In particular, concerns have caused investors to developments in North Korea and Kazakhstan. Supports the "black gold", the situation around Iran. The positive dynamics of transaction prices is largely due to the situation on the international currency market Forex. Dollar since the beginning of the day has gone down significantly against the euro and other currencies. The dollar index for the six major world currencies fell below 80 points, providing favorable conditions for the continuation of speculative purchases of oil and other commodity assets whose prices are set in U.S. currency.

The cost of the January futures on U.S. crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) in trading in New York rose to 97.02 dollars per barrel.

Resistance 3:1240/44 (61.8 % FIBO 1267-1200, Dec 13 high)

Resistance 2:1233 (50.0 % FIBO 1267-1200)

Resistance 1:1225 (Dec 14 and 16 high, session high)

Current price: 1226,00

Support 1 : 1220 (Dec 19 high)

Support 2 : 1210 (resistance line from Dec 8)

Support 3 : 1193 (61,8 % FIBO 1147-1267)

USD/CAD C$1.0365

Data:

07:00 Germany PPI (November) 0.1%

07:00 Germany PPI (November) Y/Y 5.2%

09:00 Germany IFO business climate index (December) 107.2

11:00 UK CBI retail sales volume balance (December) +9%

The euro rose  after an Ifo report showed German business confidence unexpectedly increased and borrowing costs fell at a Spanish bill sale.

The U.S. currency fell on reduced demand for a refuge.

The pound gained as U.K. consumer confidence rose from a record low.

The euro reached a one-week high versus the dollar after the Ifo institute’s business climate index for Germany, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, rose to 107.2 this month from 106.6 in November, boosting optimism that Europe’s largest economy will avoid a recession next year. Economists expected a drop to 106.

Europe’s currency was supported after Spain sold 5.64 billion euros of three-month and six-month bills, exceeding a maximum target of 4.5 billion euros. The average yield on the three-month debt dropped to 1.735 percent, compared with 5.110 percent when the securities were last issued on Nov. 22. European finance ministers yesterday boosted their efforts to counter the region’s debt crisis by pledging extra resources for the International Monetary Fund.

“It’s a slight squeeze higher for all risky currencies after the Spanish auction was better than expected,” said Elsa Lignos, a currency strategist at Royal

EUR/USD: during european session the pair rose in $1.3080 area.

GBP/USD: the pair has grown above $1.5600.

USD/JPY: the pair remained below level Y78.00.

Resistance 3: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.30/45 (area of Nov 1-4 highs)

Resistance 1: Y78.15 (Dec 14-15 and 19 highs)

Current price: Y77.92

Support 1:Y77.60 (Dec 13 and 16 lows)

Support 2:Y77.50 (Dec 9 low)

Support 3:Y77.10 (Dec 8 low)

Комментарии: пара снизилась ниже линии поддержки от 1 декабря и сейчас пытается закрепится ниже нее. Преодоление данной линии поддержки открывает дорогу к области минимумов декабря в районе Chf0,9060. Однако, на пути к данной области расположены несколько сильных уровней поддержки. Также не стоит забывать, что рост франка усиливает вероятность действия со стороны швейцарского нацбанка, направленных на сдерживание роста национальной валюты.

USD/CAD C$1.0365

Nikkei 225 8,336 +40.36 +0.49%

Hang Seng 18,080 +9.99 +0.06%

S&P/ASX 200 4,053 -7.27 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,216 -2.30 -0.10%

Euro-region governments have to repay more than 1.1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) of long- and short-term debt in 2012, according to Bloomberg data. Italy and Spain have about 146 billion euros of bonds and bills maturing in the first quarter, the data show.

European finance ministers yesterday said they will boost their anti-crisis efforts by pledging 150 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund. Four countries not using the single currency also agreed to add to the IMF war chest while Britain refused to commit funds, a sign of the difficulty of attracting outside cash to ease the euro area’s debt burdens

Australia’s dollar rose after the Reserve Bank said in minutes of its Dec. 6 meeting that investment in the domestic economy and “solid growth” among trading partners had tempered the need for lower rates. New Zealand’s currency climbed before a report this week forecast to show an acceleration of economic growth in the third quarter.

EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair holds in range $1.2990-1.3015.

GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair gain.

USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair fell.

On Tuesday European data starts at 0700GMT with German PPI data for November, closely followed by the German GfK consumer sentiment data at 0710GMT. Also today, MEPs are due to discuss the new fiscal compact. The exact time and location is to be confirmed, but this will likely take place late in the European morning. Core-European data is due at 0900GMT, when the German IFO business survey is due and is expected to show slight deteriorations in the Business Climate index to 106, in the Current Assessment to 116 and in Expectations to 97. At 1500GMT, the pace of us housing starts is expected to rise slightly to a 630,000 annual rate in November, offsetting the decline in the previous month. At 1530GMT, the weekly EIA crude oil stocks data is due.

Asian stocks fell after reports North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has died, extending earlier losses sparked by Fitch Ratings saying it may cut the credit ratings of European nations.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) declined 1.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.2 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.3 percent.

Losses deepened after Yonhap News reported that Kim Jong Il, the second-generation North Korean dictator, died at age 70. South Korea’s Kospi Index sank 3.4 percent. The Kospi 200 volatility gauge closed 10 percent higher, the biggest advance in five weeks, at 27.98, indicating options traders expect a swing of 8 percent in the next 30 days.

HSBC fell 2 percent to HK$57.65 in Hong Kong. Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-biggest lender, dropped 2.2 percent to A$20.05 in Sydney. Samsung Electronics slid 3.6 percent to 1.007 million won Seoul.

Chinese developers declined as China’s home prices posted the worst performance this year, with more than half of the 70 biggest cities monitored in November recording declines after the government reiterated plans to maintain property curbs.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the biggest mainland homebuilder listed in Hong Kong, sank 3.4 percent to HK$13.84 in Hong Kong. China Resources Land Ltd., a state-owned developer, dropped 4 percent to HK$12.48. Agile Property Holdings Ltd., a real-estate company partly owned by JPMorgan Chase & Co., fell 3.2 percent to HK$6.66.

Billabong tumbled 44 percent to A$2.03, poised for its biggest decline on record, after saying first-half profit may fall by as much as 26 percent as sales stalled in three key markets, including Australia, Europe and North America. The forecast comes less than two months after the company predicted a strong increase in earnings.

Most European stocks declined, following two weeks of losses for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as euro-area policy makers discussed channeling additional financial support through the International Monetary Fund. Euro-area finance ministers held a conference call today to discuss channeling 200 billion euros ($260 billion) in additional funding through the International Monetary Fund and the mechanics of a so-called fiscal compact that were agreed upon in the Dec. 9 European Union summit accord, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The European Central Bank will offer unlimited funding against collateral for as long as three years in a tender tomorrow in President Mario Draghi’s latest attempt to get cash flowing around the financial system. It’s up to lenders to decide what to do with the money, he told the Financial Times in an interview.

Fitch lowered France’s credit outlook and put the grades of nations including Spain and Italy on review for a downgrade, citing the euro area’s failure to find a “comprehensive solution” to its debt crisis. Fitch placed Spain, Italy, Belgium, Slovenia, Ireland and Cyprus on a “Rating Watch Negative” review, which it expects to complete by the end of January, according to a statement.

National benchmark indexes declined in 12 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 Index added 0.1 percent, Germany’s DAX Index slipped 0.5 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index sank 0.4 percent.

SGL Carbon declined 9.5 percent to 40.99 euros after Chief Financial Officer Juergen Muth told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that the German maker of carbon and graphite products regards a takeover by Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and the carmaker’s heiress Susanne Klatten as unlikely. BMW and Klatten together hold about 44 percent in SGL.

BP Plc, Europe’s second-biggest oil producer, dropped 1.8 percent to 437.65 pence. Oil and gas companies were among the worst performers of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600.

Vedanta Resources Plc dropped 3.6 percent to 1,046 pence. Antofagasta Plc slid 1.9 percent to 1,150 pence and Xstrata Plc lost 1.4 percent to 956.7 pence.

Copper futures dropped in London and New York as investors speculated that demand will ease after property prices fell in China, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals. In November, 49 big cities monitored in China posted house- price declines, the most this year, after the government affirmed plans to maintain property curbs.

Air Berlin rallied 8.3 percent to 2.50 euros after saying that Etihad Airways, Abu Dhabi’s state-controlled airline, will pay 72.9 million euros to increase its stake in the German airline to 29.2 percent. Etihad will purchase 31.6 million new shares at Dec. 16’s closing price of 2.31 euros a piece, Air Berlin said in a statement. Etihad will keep the shares for at least two years and not increase its stake during that time.

Nestle climbed 2 percent to 52.20 Swiss francs as the world’s biggest food company limited declines on the Stoxx 600.

U.S. stocks retreated, following a two-day advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid concern European officials were failing to make progress in taming the debt crisis and as financial companies tumbled.

The S&P 500 slipped 1.2 percent to 1,205.32 at 4 p.m. New York time, according to preliminary closing data. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities gained 0.7 percent over the previous two days.

The S&P 500 has fallen 4.2 percent in 2011, poised to snap a two-year (SPX) rally, amid concern about slower global growth as European leaders struggled to solve the region’s debt crisis. Financial shares had the biggest decline among 10 groups in the benchmark measure this year, tumbling 23 percent.

Equities slumped today as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi cited substantial risks to the economy and said the ECB can’t step up government bond purchases under its founding piece of legislation. Germany continued to oppose an early decision to raise the limit of 500 billion euros on overall emergency aid.

Euro-area governments met a target for boosting their anti- crisis warchest with a pledge to provide 150 billion euros ($195 billion) to the International Monetary Fund. Four non-euro users -- the Czech Republic, Denmark, Poland and Sweden -- will also pitch in, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said in an e-mailed statement after chairing a teleconference of finance ministers today.

The first part of 2012 will be “risk off” as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis encourages demand for safety, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (C) slumped more than 3.8 percent on a report that large financial institutions will have to hold extra capital. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) tumbled 3.7 percent to $30.54.

Energy companies dropped 1 percent as a group, while raw material shares declined 1.3 percent. Oil futures fell 0.3 percent after rising as much as 1 percent earlier. Chevron lost 1.1 percent to $100.30. Exxon Mobil tumbled 0.8 percent to $79.84.

Resistance 3: Y79.00 (Nov 1 high)

Resistance 2: Y78.30/45 (area of Nov 1-4 high)

Resistance 1: Y78.15 (Dec 15 high, session high)

The current price: Y77.92

Support 1:Y77.50/60 (area of Dec 9-16 low)

Support 2:Y77.10 (Dec 8 low)

Support 3:Y76.60 (Nov 18 low)

Comments: the pair is on uptrend. In focus resistance Y77.15

Resistance 3: Chf0.9480 (Dec 13 high)

Resistance 2: Chf0.9430 (high of the American session on Dec 15)

Resistance 1: Chf0.9400 (Dec 19 high)

The current price: Chf0.9374

Support 1: Chf0.9345 (Dec 13 low, MA (233) H1)

Support 2: Chf0.9290 (Dec 8 low)

Support 3: Chf0.9250 (Dec 12 low)

Comments: the pair holds in range. In focus resistance Chf0.9400.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 8,296 -105.60 -1.26%

Hang Seng 18,070 -215.18 -1.18%

S&P/ASX 200 4,060 -98.85 -2.38%

Shanghai Composite 2,218 -6.60 -0.30%

FTSE 100 5,365 -22.35 -0.41%

CAC 40 2,974 +1.90 +0.06%

DAX 5,671 -31.07 -0.54%

Dow 11,766.26 -100.13 -0.84%

Nasdaq 2,523.14 -32.19 -1.26%

S&P 500 1,205.35 -14.31 -1.17%

10 Year Yield 1.81% -0.04 --

Oil $93.66 -0.22 -0.23%

Gold $1,592.80 -3.90 -0.24%