Brent May Dive Lower

This week, Brent crude prices increased by 0.8% to $82.50 per barrel. However, this formal rise is considered non-indicative, as prices have been consolidating within the resistance range of $81.00-$83.00 per barrel for three consecutive weeks.

Macroeconomic concerns are taking precedence over geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Joe Biden has expressed hope for a ceasefire in Israel's conflict with Gaza before March 4. The combination of a global macroeconomic slowdown and eased geopolitical tensions could contribute to lower crude prices.

Recent macroeconomic data from the United States indicates an economic slowdown, with U.S. retail sales dropping by 0.8% MoM in January, the worst reading since April 2023. Durable Goods Orders in the U.S. also fell sharply by 6.1% MoM, the worst performance since the pandemic in April 2020. These factors, along with rising oil inventories in the U.S., may push prices lower, potentially to the support level at $73.00 per barrel of Brent crude.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are scheduled to have a meeting next week. There are rumors that oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day are likely to be extended to the second quarter of 2024.

From a technical perspective, oil prices have a greater upside potential during the first half of March. This could see Brent prices breach the resistance at $83.00 per barrel and move toward a target range of $87.00-$92.00. However, there are no fundamental reasons supporting such an upside. If prices fail to move above $83.00, there is a risk of reversal to $73.00 and possibly lower.