Brent Is Targeting $75-77

Brent crude prices declined by 1.6% to $66.73 per barrel, rebounding from intraday lows of $65.33 reached on Wednesday. The recovery remains limited by the resistance range of $67–69, which has repeatedly capped upside attempts, including at the end of last week. Prices are currently oscillating within a broad sideways range, with Wednesday’s move marking an unexpected correction.

Market sentiment was rattled after Kazakhstan's newly appointed energy minister, Erlan Akkenzhenov, stated that the country would prioritise national interests over OPEC+ commitments when deciding on oil production. The statement triggered an immediate decline in prices. However, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry later issued a clarification, reaffirming its commitment to global energy stability and market balance. The walk-back suggests the new minister is facing internal and external pressure.

Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its OPEC+ production quota and is expected to compensate for this overproduction by June 2026. Yet, with around 70% of national output controlled by foreign oil majors and the remainder coming from ageing fields, the government’s leverage is limited.

The next OPEC+ meeting on 5 May could bring a decision to increase output quotas by an additional 411,000 barrels per day. However, due to its repeated violations, Kazakhstan may not benefit from any increase, a development that adds a layer of uncertainty to the market.

Looking ahead, the resistance zone may ease to $66–68 next week, potentially opening the way to higher targets of $75–77 per barrel. Fears of a deeper pullback to $58.68 are fading as trade war tensions subside. The U.S. administration is reportedly considering tariff reductions on Chinese imports, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocating for mutual tariff cuts ahead of formal trade talks.

Investor behaviour has mirrored market dynamics. The United States Oil Fund (USO) reported $46.4 million in net inflows last week, peaking at $180 million. However, with Brent testing resistance, profit-taking led to $186.4 million in net outflows this week, primarily on Tuesday. Large investors now appear to be in a wait-and-see mode. A pullback to $60 could present attractive buying opportunities with near-term targets at $68. A breakout above $68, on the other hand, may trigger a wave of long positions targeting the $75–77 range.