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Forex-novosti i prognoze od 10-01-2012
The dollar declined as US stocks advanced, damping demand for safer investments.
The euro’s gains were tempered before Spain and Italy sell debt this week amid concern the nations will struggle to meet funding needs. Spain will auction as much as 5 billion euros of bonds due in 2015 and 2016 on Jan. 12, and Italy will sell 12 billion euros of bills the same day.
The dollar and yen weakened against higher-yielding currencies before Germany’s chancellor meets with the International Monetary Fund’s managing director amid signs European leaders are taking steps to end the debt crisis.
Gold futures jumped to the highest in almost three weeks as the dollar’s drop bolstered demand for commodities. Silver, platinum and palladium also surged.
The greenback dropped for the second straight day against a basket of currencies amid signs that European leaders are taking more steps to stem the region’s debt woes.
Gold futures for February delivery advanced 1.77% to $1,633.40 an ounce. Earlier, the metal reached session high at $1,639.80.
Oil rose on growing concern that geopolitical tension in the Middle East may disrupt supply and as higher stock markets raised economic optimism.
Crude for February delivery climbed $1.30 to $102.61 a barrel.
Resistance 3:1310 (high of August)
Resistance 2:1300 (psychological level)
Resistance 1:1290 (session high, high of October)
Current price: 1289,50
Resistance 1:1281/80 (earlier resistance, area of Jan 6 high)
Support 2 : 1267 (Jan 6-9 lows)
Support 3 : 1260 (Jan 5 low)
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y76.45, Y76.50, Y77.00, Y77.10, Y77.30
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0250, $1.0225
GBP/USD $1.5370, $1.5400, $1.5500, $1.5800
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100
USD/CHF Chf0.9400, Chf0.9420, Chf0.9500
U.S. stock futures rose after Alcoa’s revenue beat analysts’ estimates and investors speculated China may act to spur growth.
Stocks in Europe and Asia rallied as China’s import growth fell to a two-year low in December, bolstering forecasts for monetary easing.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde meet in Berlin as pressure grows to complete a Greek debt swap needed to put a rescue plan in place.
Alcoa rallied. Sales rose to $5.99 billion, beating estimates. The company had a loss excluding restructuring costs of 3 cents a share.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 8,422 +31.91 +0.38%
Hang Seng 19,004 +138.56 +0.73%
Shanghai Composite 2,286 +59.85 +2.69%
FTSE 5,700 +87.32 +1.56%
CAC 3,217 +89.48 +2.86%
DAX 6,179 +162.10 +2.69%
Crude oil: $103.19 (+1,9%).
Gold: $1637.90 (+1,9%).
07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m November 0.0% +0.1% +1.1%
07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y November +1.8% -0.4% +0.1%
The euro’s gains were tempered before Spain and Italy sell debt this week amid concern the nations will struggle to meet funding needs. Spain will auction as much as 5 billion euros of bonds due in 2015 and 2016 on Jan. 12, and Italy will sell 12 billion euros of bills the same day.
The dollar and yen weakened against higher-yielding currencies before Germany’s chancellor meets with the International Monetary Fund’s managing director amid signs European leaders are taking steps to end the debt crisis.
The U.S. currency declined as European and Asian stocks advanced, damping demand for safer investments.
EUR/USD: the pair has grown above $1,2800.
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5590/600, $1.5550/60, $1.5520/25, $1.5485
Bids $1.5440, $1.5425/20, $1.5400/390
EUR/USD
Offers $1.2840/60, $1.2830/20
Bids $1.2720, $1.2710/695, $1.2660/50
Resistance 3: Y77.60 (61,8 % FIBO Y78,20-Y76,60)
Resistance 2: Y77.35/40 (Jan 6 high, 50,0 % FIBO Y78,20-Y76,60)
Resistance 1: Y77.00 (Jan 9 high)
Current price: Y76.83
Support 1:Y76.75 (session low and Jan 9 low)
Support 2:Y76.55 (Nov 18 low)
Support 3:Y76.00 (psychological level)
Resistance 3: Chf0.9600 (area of session high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9540 (high of american session on Jan 9)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9510 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9483
Support 1: Chf0.9465/60 (area of session low and Dec 29 high)
Support 2: Chf0.9445/40 (area of Jan 4 high and МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3: Chf0.9410 (Jan 5 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.5555 (61,8 % FIBO $1,5670-$ 1,5375)
Resistance 2 : $1.5630 (50,0 % FIBO $1,5670-$ 1,5375, Jan 6 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5500 (area of session high and МА(200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.5461
Support 1 : $1.5440 (area of session low)
Support 2 : $1.5420 (Jan 9 american session low )
Support 3 : $1.5375/60 (area of Dec and Jan 6 lows)
Resistance 3: $ 1.2890 (МА (200) for Н1)
Resistance 2: $ 1.2860/70 (Dec 29 low, 50,0 % $1,3080-$ 1,2660)
Resistance 1: $ 1.2810/20 (38,2 % $1,3080-$ 1,2660, Jan 6 high, session high)
Current price: $1.2783
Support 1 : $1.2740 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2720 (low of american session on Jan 9)
Support 3 : $1.2660 (Jan 9 low)
EUR/USD $1.2700, $1.2750, $1.3000(large)
USD/JPY Y76.45, Y76.50, Y77.00, Y77.10, Y77.30
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0250, $1.0225
GBP/USD $1.5370, $1.5400, $1.5500, $1.5800
EUR/CHF Chf1.2100(large)
USD/CHF Chf0.9400, Chf0.9420, Chf0.9500
Asian stocks climbed, with China shares set for the biggest three-day gain in a year, amid speculation that policy makers may act to spur growth in the world's second-largest economy.
Nikkei 225 8,422 +31.91 +0.38%
Hang Seng 19,004 +138.56 +0.73%
S&P/ASX 200 4,152 +46.79 +1.14%
Shanghai Composite 2,286 +59.85 +2.69%
Honda increased 1.4 percent to 2,488 yen. Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), South Korea’s largest automaker, advanced 2.3 percent to 226,500 won in Seoul. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s second- biggest maker of mobile phones by sales, added 1 percent to 1.026 million won.
Olympus Corp. (7733) surged 20 percent to 1,263 yen after the Nikkei reported the scandal-hit camera maker will likely retain its listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and as the company took legal action against executives over a $1.7 billion accounting fraud.
00:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) November +0.2% +0.4% 0.0%
00:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y November +2.8% +3.1%
The euro held a one-day gain versus the dollar before Germany’s chancellor and the International Monetary Fund’s managing director meet amid optimism Europe’s leaders are taking steps to resolve the debt crisis.
The 17-nation currency remained higher against the yen after yesterday’s advance as the leaders of Germany and France discussed a rulebook for closer fiscal union within the euro area.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece would be the focus of talks with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde today in Berlin. “We want Greece to stay in the euro,” Merkel said in a joint press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy after the two leaders met yesterday.
The franc maintained a three-day gain versus the euro on prospects traders may test Switzerland’s currency ceiling after central-bank Chairman Philipp Hildebrand’s resignation. The SNB Bank Council, the central bank’s supervisory board, will hold an extraordinary meeting in Zurich today.Thomas Jordan’s first test as interim president of Switzerland’s central bank will be to prove he can defend the four-month old cap on the franc as well as its chief architect did.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed as Asian stocks rose, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets.
EUR/USD: on Asian session the pair gain.
GBP/USD: on Asian session the pair traded in range $1.5390-$1.5440.
USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in range Y76.80-Y77.00.
European events start at 0700GMT with Germany foreign trade data, which is followed by France foreign trade at 0745GMT.
Core-European data also includes the 1100GMT release of German industrial output data. At 1230GMT German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are due to meet and hold a joint press conference, in Berlin. US data starts at 1430GMT with the weekly Capital Goods Index, which is followed at 1500GMT by the Employment Trends Index and then at 1530GMT by the weekly Retail Trade Index. Back in Europe at 1530GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a speech at a conference of the DBB trade union, in Cologne.
Asian stocks reversed losses as shares of Chinese lenders and developers rallied after China’s new lending and money supply increased. Exporters dropped after a Federal Reserve official said the central bank probably won’t begin a new round of bond purchases.
Samsung Electronics, the world’s second-biggest maker of mobile phones by sales, decreased 2.3 percent in Seoul. HTC Corp. sank 5.2 percent in Taipei as the maker of smartphones posted its first drop in quarterly profit in two years. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. led a rally among China’s lenders and developers as the new loans and money supply data stoked speculation the government is already taking steps to ease a cash crunch.
European stocks fell as a summit between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy failed to assuage concern over the debt crisis.
UniCredit SpA tumbled as rights to buy the bank’s shares slumped in their first day of trading in Milan. GlaxoSmithKline fell 4.1 percent after saying its experimental respiratory drug Relovair failed to prove its superiority to an existing medicine in a late-stage study. Nokia Oyj fell 2.8 percent as supplier RF Micro Devices Inc. reported preliminary quarterly revenue that trailed its earlier forecast.
U.S. stocks advanced, extending last week’s rally for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as European leaders discussed shoring up the region’s currency and investors awaited the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season.
Measures of industrial, energy and financial shares had the biggest gains in the S&P 500 among 10 groups. Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, increased 2.9 percent before reporting its quarterly results. Broadcom Corp. rallied 2.5 percent as Deutsche Bank AG said soft fourth-quarter results for chipmakers create a buying opportunity for the industry.
Resistance 3: Y77.88 (high of the European session on Dec 29)
Resistance 2: Y77.55 (Dec 28 low)
Resistance 1: Y77.15 (MA (233) H1)
The current price: Y76.93
Support 1:Y76.60 (Jan 3-4 low)
Support 2:Y76.10 (Sep 22 low)
Support 3:Y75.60 (Oct 31 low)
00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y December -1.6% +0.5% +2.2%
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance December -17% -18% -16%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m November -10.7% +6.3% +8.4%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y November -29.8% -19.8% -18.9%
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln December 14.5 8.3 16.5
Yesterday the euro rose to a 16-month low against the dollar after meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, specify a new set of rules of financial discipline discussed at the summit on December 9. As per the last meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that negotiations on the fiscal pact are good. Merkel also noted the need for a fiscal pact included measures to stimulate economic growth. In turn, French President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged that France's budget deficit in 2011 will be lower than expected.
It became known of the resignation of the head of the Swiss National Bank Philipp Hildebrand. The resignation is related to the recent scandal of illegal operations with the use of insider information. Frank has become stronger after reports of the resignation of the head of the Swiss central bank.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair grew.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair was restored.
USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y76.80-Y77.00.
Macroeconomic data releases are generally second-tier for Tuesday, starting at 0730GMT with the Bank of France business survey, which is followed at 0745GMT by France industrial output data. US data starts at 1245GMT with the ICSC Weekly Shopping mall sales, which are followed at 1355GMT by the Redbook weekly store sales data. US data continues at 1500GMT with Wholesale Inventories and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.
Resistance 3: Chf0.9595 (Jan 9 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9540 (high of the American session on Jan 9)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9500 (session high)
The current price: Chf0.9469
Support 1: Chf0.9450 (50.0% FIBO Chf0.9595-Chf0.9305)
Support 2: Chf0.9415 (61.8% FIBO Chf0.9595-Chf0.9305)
Support 3: Chf0.9395 (Dec 29 low)
Resistance 3 : $1.5630 (Jan 5 high)
Resistance 2 : $1.5570 (Dec 30 high)
Resistance 1 : $1.5520 (Jan 6 high, MA (233) H1)
The current price: $1.5479
Support 1 : $1.5445 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5420 (low of the American session on Jan 9)
Support 3 : $1.5375 (Jan 6 low)
Resistance 3: $1.2920 (61.8% FIBO $1.2665-$1.3075)
Resistance 2: $1.2870 (50.0% FIBO $1.2665-$1.3075)
Resistance 1: $1.2815 (Jan 6 high)
The current price: $1.2787
Support 1 : $1.2760 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.2720 (low of the American session on Jan 9)
Support 3 : $1.2665 (Jan 9 low)
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,2763 +0,53%
GBP/USD $1,5456 +0,22%
USD/CHF Chf0,9494 -0,84%
USD/JPY Y76,83 -0,08%
EUR/JPY Y98,07 +0,46%
GBP/JPY Y118,73 +0,12%
AUD/USD $1,0238 +0,20%
NZD/USD $0,7870 +0,84%
USD/CAD C$1,0233 -0,43%
Change % Change Last
Oil $101.33 +0.02 +0.02%
Gold $1,610.90 -0.80 -0.05%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 closed
Hang Seng 18,866 +272.66 +1.47%
S&P/ASX 200 4,105 -3.07 -0.07%
Shanghai Composite 2,226 +62.49 +2.89%
FTSE 100 5,612 -37.42 -0.66%
CAC 40 3,128 0.00 0.00%
Xetra DAX 6,017 -40.69 -0.67%
S&P 500 1,281 +2.89 +0.23%
NASDAQ 2,677 +2.34 +0.09%
Dow 12,393 +32.77 +0.27%
00:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y December -1.6% +0.5%
00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance December -17% -18%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m November -10.7% +6.3%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y November -29.8% -19.8%
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln December 14.5 8.3
07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m November 0.0% +0.1%
07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y November +1.8% -0.4%
13:15 Canada Housing Starts December 181.1 188.5
15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories November +1.6% +0.6%
16:10 U.S. FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
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