Tin tức thì trường

• US Dollar Index picks up bids to refresh intraday high, keeping Friday’s rebound despite witnessing the first weekly loss in four.
• Upbeat US NFP, debt-ceiling deal optimism allow US Dollar to remain firmer.
• Fresh fears about US-China ties, pre-data anxiety adds strength to DXY run-up.
• Absence of major catalysts, pre-Fed blackout prod greenback buyers amid receding hawkish bias for Fed, market’s cautious optimism.

US Dollar Index (DXY) holds onto the previous day’s recovery moves amid a sluggish start to the week. That said, the DXY renews its intraday high near 104.15 while stretching the post-NFP rebound amid mixed catalysts and an absence of major data/events. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies also cheers the fresh fears about the US-China ties while also portraying the market’s cautious optimism ahead of the US ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders.

DXY bounced off more than a week’s low after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) renewed hawkish Fed concerns. That said, the US jobs report for May surprised markets with a jump in the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) by 339K versus 190K expected and 294K prior (revised). It’s worth noting, however, that the Unemployment Rate also rose to 3.7% from 3.4% prior, versus 3.5% market forecasts. It should be noted, that the Average Hourly Earnings eased whereas the Labor Force Participation Rate remain the same as previous.

Elsewhere, the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore renewed geopolitical fears surrounding the US and China amid no meeting of the policymakers of both nations, as well as an incident suggesting escalating war fears among the Sino-American navies in the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, news from Russian Defense Ministry suggesting large-scale military operations by Ukraine also weigh on the sentiment and put a floor under the US Dollar.

On the contrary, US President Joe Biden signed the debt-ceiling bill and avoided the ‘catastrophic’ default. Also negative for the DXY were concerns suggesting slower rate hikes from the major central banks. Furthermore, the global rating agencies remain cautious about the US financial market credibility and prod the US Dollar despite the price-positive move on Friday. “Fitch Ratings said on Friday the United States' "AAA" credit rating would remain on negative watch, despite the agreement that will allow the government to meet its obligations,” said Reuters.

While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed higher and the US Treasury bond yields marked the first weekly loss in four. It’s worth observing that the S&P500 Futures print mild losses amid mixed sentiment.

Looking ahead, US Factory Orders for April and ISM Services PMI for May will be important to watch for the intraday directions as the latest US jobs report renew hawkish bias for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and allow the US Dollar to remain on the buyer’s radar.

Technical analysis

A clear rebound from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 103.35 by the press time, allows the US Dollar Index (DXY) buyers to remain hopeful of witnessing further upside. However, a successful break of a downward-sloping resistance line from November 2022, close to 104.15 at the latest, becomes necessary for the DXY bull’s conviction.

• NZD/USD remains pressured after reversing from one-week high, sidelined amid NZ holiday.
• Failure to extend corrective bounce off seven-month low keeps Kiwi bears hopeful.
• RSI, MACD conditions prod further downside but 10-DMA, previous support line restricts buyers from taking control.

NZD/USD fades bounce off the lowest levels in seven months, keeping the previous day’s retreat, as it holds lower grounds near 0.6060 amid early Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the Kiwi pair portrays the quote’s inability to defend the previous week’s corrective bounce off the multi-day low amid failure to cross the key support-turned-resistance line and the 10-DMA.

Apart from the 10-DMA and the previous support line stretched from November 2022, respectively near 0.6060 and 0.6110, the absence of New Zealand (NZ) traders due to the holidays in Auckland also allow the Kiwi pair to continue extending the previous losses.

However, the nearly oversold RSI (14) line and the looming bull cross on the MACD allow the NZD/USD to pare previous losses in a case where the quote manages to stay firmer past the aforementioned key resistances, namely near 0.6060 and 0.6110.

In a case where the NZD/USD price remains firmer past 0.6110, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the mid-May swing low, around 0.6185, can’t be ruled out.

Following that, the May 19 peak of around 0.6310 could entertain the Kiwi pair buyers before directing them to a four-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6390.

On the contrary, pullback moves may initially aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its October 2022 to February 2023 upside, near 0.6025, before challenging the 0.6000 round figure.

It’s worth observing that the NZD/USD downside past the 0.6000 support needs to remain below the latest swing low of around 0.5985 to keep the bears on board.

NZD/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Further downside expected

• EUR/USD holds lower grounds after four-week downtrend, keeps post-NFP bearish bias.
• Downbeat Eurozone inflation clues contrasts with firmer US employment signals to keep Euro bears hopeful.
• Hawkish ECB comments, risk-on mood struggle to underpin bullish bias.
• US data eyed amid pre-Fed blackout period, corrective bounce in Euro price can’t be ruled out.

EUR/USD stays on the back foot around 1.0700, after a four-week downward trajectory, as markets brace for the key US data while keeping the post-NFP moves intact during early Monday in Asia. In doing so, the Euro pair bears the burden of downbeat Eurozone numbers suggesting that the inflation pressure on the old continent eases contrast to the upbeat US numbers. With this, the quote fails to cheer the broad market optimism, as well as downbeat US Treasury bond yields.

During the last week, the headline inflation numbers from the Eurozone and Germany eased for the second consecutive month and renewed speculations that the European Central Bank (ECB) is near to pausing the rate hike even if the policymakers stay hawkish. Also exerting downside pressure on the bloc’s currency are the political jitters in Greece and Spain, as well as the Eurozone versus Russian tension that is likely to have economic consequences for the former and renew recession calls for the bloc.

That said, on Friday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker, Boštjan Vasle, “More rate hikes needed to get inflation to the 2% target.” The policymaker also added that the core inflation remains high and persistent. On the same line, ECB Governing Council member, Gabriel Makhlouf, said on Friday that they are “likely to see another rate increase at the next meeting.”

On the other hand, the US jobs report for May surprised markets with a jump in the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) by 339K versus 190K expected and 294K prior (revised). It’s worth noting, however, that the Unemployment Rate also rose to 3.7% from 3.4% prior, versus 3.5% market forecasts. It should be noted, that the Average Hourly Earnings eased whereas the Labor Force Participation Rate remain the same as previous.

It’s worth noting, however, that the market’s risk-on mood put a floor under the EUR/USD price as US President Joe Biden signed the debt-ceiling bill and avoided the ‘catastrophic’ default. Also positive were concerns suggesting slower rate hikes from the major central banks. Furthermore, the global rating agencies remain cautious about the US financial market credibility and prod the US Dollar despite the price-positive move on Friday. “Fitch Ratings said on Friday the United States' "AAA" credit rating would remain on negative watch, despite the agreement that will allow the government to meet its obligations,” said Reuters.

Against this backdrop, the United States Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar marked the first weekly loss in four while Wall Street closed on the positive side.

Looking ahead, US Factory Orders for April and ISM Services PMI for May will be important to watch for the intraday directions as the latest US jobs report renew hawkish bias for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and allow the US Dollar to remain on the buyer’s radar. It should be observed that the Fed policymakers are stipulated for any public comments ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which in turn may allow the EUR/USD to pare some of the latest losses in a case where the US data flash downbeat prints.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD remains sidelined between the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-day EMA, currently between 1.0770 and 1.0685 in that order. That said, the below 50 levels of the RSI (14) line and an impending bull cross on the MACD keeps the pair buyers hopeful.

• Gold Price remains pressured towards short-term key support after snapping three-week downtrend with minor gains.
• XAU/USD bears cheer upbeat United States Nonfarm Payrolls favoring Federal Reserve hawks but employment details aren’t too impressive.
• US policymakers’ ability to avoid the ‘catastrophic’ default, absence of Fed talks ahead of FOCM may tease Gold buyers.
• China inflation, second-tier data may entertain XAU/USD traders amid a likely less volatile week.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) bears the burden of fresh hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) calls, especially after the strong United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), as it slides below $1,950 amid early Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the yellow metal holds onto the post-NFP losses despite posting the first weekly gain in four. That said, the pre-Fed blackout of policymakers may restrict the XAU/USD moves during the week while US ISM Services PMI and China inflation numbers may direct the Gold Price moves.

Gold Price lures buyers despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls

Gold Price marked the biggest daily slump in a month after the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surprises markets with a strong number and bolstered the Federal Reserve (Fed). Even so, the XAU/USD snapped a three-week downtrend as market sentiment remains slightly positive. The reason could be linked to the mixed details of the US employment report for May.

On Friday, the US jobs report for May surprised markets with a jump in the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) by 339K versus 190K expected and 294K prior (revised). It’s worth noting, however, that the Unemployment Rate also rose to 3.7% from 3.4% prior, versus 3.5% market forecasts. It should be noted, that the Average Hourly Earnings eased whereas the Labor Force Participation Rate remain the same as previous.

It’s worth noting that the latest tension between the US and China, especially due to the Taiwan concerns, however, joins the likeliness of 25 basis points (bps) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June to exert downside pressure on the Gold Price.

United States policymakers’ ability to avoid default, no Fed talks can favor XAU/USD bulls

While the United States labor market report defends downside bias for the Gold Price, the policymakers’ ability to avoid the ‘catastrophic’ default keeps the metal buyers hopeful, especially amid the downside US Dollar and Treasury bond yields.

After the US House of Representatives and Senate passes the debt-ceiling bill, the key agreement reached US President Joe Biden’s desk for signing and became the law before the June 05 deadline, avoiding the ‘catastrophic’ default. It should be noted, however, that the global rating agencies remain cautious despite the price-positive move. “Fitch Ratings said on Friday the United States' "AAA" credit rating would remain on negative watch, despite the agreement that will allow the government to meet its obligations,” said Reuters.

Amid these plays, the United States Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar marked the first weekly loss in four while Wall Street closed on the positive side, which in turn keeps the riskier assets and the Gold Price on the buyer’s radar.

Looking forward, the Gold Price may witness hardships in extending the previous day’s losses as a lack of major data/events, as well as the cautious optimism in the market, may allow the XAU/USD to pare previous losses. That said, United States Factory Orders and ISM Services PMI may entertain the intraday Gold traders while China inflation and risk catalysts should be eyed afterward for clear directions.

Gold Price technical analysis

Gold Price has a bumpy road to travel towards the south despite reversing from a 12-day-old horizontal resistance, around $1,985-87.

The reason could be linked to the below 50.0 levels of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, as well as an 11-week horizontal support zone near $1,937-32 that also comprises the previous resistance line stretched from early May.

Even if the XAU/USD breaks the aforementioned horizontal support zone, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its March-May upside, near $1,913, will precede the $1,900 round figure and the mid-March swing low of around $1,884 to challenge the Gold bears.

On the contrary, the Gold Price upside beyond the aforementioned horizontal resistance area surrounding $1,985-87 isn’t an open invitation to the buyers as the 200-bar SMA level of around $1,990 and the $2,000 psychological magnet can restrict the bullion’s north-run.

In a case where the XAU/USD remains firmer past $2,000, multiple hurdles near $,2010 and $2,050 can act as the last defenses of the bears.

Overall, Gold prices appear to have limited downside room and can lure the short-term recovery.

Gold Price: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited downside expected

• AUD/USD is seeing fresh selling pressure at the start of a new week.
• China, US fundamentally disagree over Taiwan, global rules.
• US Dollar holds the post-NFP rally, focus shifts to the RBA decision.

AUD/USD is seeing a negative start to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision week, as investors digest the latest concerning developments between the US and China over Taiwan and over a range of other issues, including Taiwan, semiconductor chip exports etc.

Speaking at Asia’s top security summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu warned, “it is undeniable that a severe conflict or confrontation between China and the US will be an unbearable disaster for the world.”

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told the meeting that Washington was “deeply committed” to preserving the status quo in self-ruled Taiwan that Beijing claims as its own territory.

Meanwhile, a Chinese warship came within 150 yards (137 meters) of a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait in "an unsafe manner," US military officials said, In response, China blamed the US for "deliberately provoking risk" in the region.

Besides the renewed tensions between the US and China, AUD/USD also remains weighed down by a broadly stronger US Dollar, especially in the wake of a stunning US Nonfarm Payrolls print.

The US economy added 339K jobs in May vs. 190K expected and the upwardly revised previous reading of 294K. The wage inflation component in the jobs report softened to 4.3% while the Unemployment Rate in the US ticked higher to 3.7% in the reported period, compared with expectations of 3.5%. However, following the mixed US employment data, markets continued to price a 75% probability that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause at the June 13-14 policy meeting.

Attention now turns toward the Chinese Caixin Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI due later in the day ahead. Although investors eagerly await the RBA policy announcements on Tuesday for a fresh direction in the pair. The RBA is expected to hold rates at 3.85% in June but economists and money markets remain divided over its next move as lingering price pressures and recovering home prices suggest a hike may be needed while weaker activity and rising unemployment argue for a pause.

AUD/USD: Technical levels to consider

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said on Sunday, “Saudi Arabia to make extra 1 mln b/d output cut from July.”

Additional comments

Related reads

• OPEC+ agrees to new output target of 40.46 mb/d from 2024
• Oil price makes comeback after Senate votes for debt-ceiling bill, NFPs fuel uptrend

Following the conclusion of its June 4 Ministerial meeting, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) announced in a statement that they have reached a deal, agreeing to a new output target of 40.46 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2024.

The statement reported that the next OPEC+ meeting will take place on November 26th in Vienna, adding that Russia, Angola and Nigeria to all see significant production target cuts in 2024.

In response, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexandar Novak said, Russia's voluntary output cuts remain at 500 b/d, extending voluntary output cuts through 2024.

Additional quotes

“OPEC+ agrees to total oil output cuts of 3.66 mb/d.”

“We're closely watching China's recovery post-covid.”

“We have the possibility of tweaking our decisions.”

Market implications

WTI is likely to see a bullish opening gap, extending Friday’s upsurge in reaction to the OPEC+ announcement. The US oil closed Friday nearly 2.50% higher at around $71.90.